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Sha Tin · 2021-06-26

Race 1

Class 5 WET SLOW 1650m 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-06-26 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on WET SLOW going. LUCKY VICTOR, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by K H Ting, won by 2, with RUBY STARS second and KA FORTUNE third. The winner led throughout. The 5.6 favourite KA YING BRILLIANCE finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.40.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 LUCKY VICTOR Wire to wire B/TT 1.40.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · K H Ting 3 22.0 2
2 3 RUBY STARS Closed strongly TT K C Leung · K L Man 1 15.0 2
3 5 KA FORTUNE Closed strongly B N Callan · P O'Sullivan 9 7.8 2-1/2
4 1 CALIFORNIA LEGEND TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 4 7.0 3
5 11 GENERAL DINO Closed strongly B A Badel · D J Whyte 14 6.3 3-1/2
6 2 FIGURES TWO Closed strongly M F Poon · A T Millard 12 18.0 4
7 14 KEEP WINNING Closed strongly P H W Lai · C W Chang 11 33.0 7-1/4
8 10 KA YING BRILLIANCE B/XB Z Purton · T P Yung 5 5.6 8-1/4
9 7 RUN DES RUN TT K Teetan · K W Lui 2 5.6 9-1/2
10 6 GO BALLISTIC SR/TT B Shinn · D E Ferraris 6 11.0 15
11 4 WINNING GENGHIS B-/H-/SR- C Wong · Y S Tsui 8 63.0 19
12 12 VEGA RHYTHM B/H M Chadwick · L Ho 13 11.0 29-1/2
13 9 AEROSONIC P/TT J Moreira · J Size 10 32.0 59-3/4
14 8 GORGEOUS INHERITOR T Piccone · C H Yip 7 75.0 71-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LUCKY VICTOR2. RUBY STARS+2L3. KA FORTUNE+2.5L4. CALIFORNIA LEGEND+3L5. GENERAL DINO+3.5L6. FIGURES TWO+4L7. KEEP WINNING+7.25L8. KA YING BRILLIANCE+8.25L9. RUN DES RUN+9.5L10. GO BALLISTIC+15L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick KA YING BRILLIANCE (18.2%) finished 8th — the winner LUCKY VICTOR was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 KA YING BRILLIANCE 18.2% 5.50 8
2 1 CALIFORNIA LEGEND 16.3% 6.13 4
3 7 RUN DES RUN 15.3% 6.55 9
4 9 AEROSONIC 10.5% 9.57 13
5 13 LUCKY VICTOR 7.1% 14.14 1
6 5 KA FORTUNE 6.5% 15.45 3
7 12 VEGA RHYTHM 5.4% 18.36 12
8 11 GENERAL DINO 5.1% 19.63 5
9 8 GORGEOUS INHERITOR 4.2% 24.01 14
10 3 RUBY STARS 3.4% 29.64 2
11 6 GO BALLISTIC 3.3% 30.76 10
12 2 FIGURES TWO 2.4% 42.25 6
13 14 KEEP WINNING 1.5% 67.95 7
14 4 WINNING GENGHIS 1.0% 95.25 11
KA YING BRILLIANCECALIFORNIA LEGENDRUN DES RUNAEROSONICLUCKY VICTOR — wonKA FORTUNEVEGA RHYTHMGENERAL DINOGORGEOUS INHERITORRUBY STARSGO BALLISTICFIGURES TWOKEEP WINNINGWINNING GENGHIS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 223.5

PLACE

3 49.5

5 23

13 63.5

QUINELLA

3,13 1,316

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 205

3,13 347

5,13 256

FORECAST

13,3 1,412

TIERCE

13,3,5 28,919

TRIO

3,5,13 5,356

FIRST 4

1,3,5,13 6,247

QUARTET

13,3,5,1 158,931

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 17.5