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Sha Tin · 2021-06-26

Race 1

Class 5 WET SLOW 1650m 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 LUCKY VICTOR Wire to wire B/TT 1.40.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · K H Ting 3 22.0 2
2 0 RUBY STARS Closed strongly TT K C Leung · K L Man 1 15.0 2
3 0 KA FORTUNE Closed strongly B N Callan · P O'Sullivan 9 7.8 2-1/2
4 0 CALIFORNIA LEGEND TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 4 7.0 3
5 0 GENERAL DINO Closed strongly B A Badel · D J Whyte 14 6.3 3-1/2
6 0 FIGURES TWO Closed strongly M F Poon · A T Millard 12 18.0 4
7 0 KEEP WINNING Closed strongly P H W Lai · C W Chang 11 33.0 7-1/4
8 0 KA YING BRILLIANCE B/XB Z Purton · T P Yung 5 5.6 8-1/4
9 0 RUN DES RUN TT K Teetan · K W Lui 2 5.6 9-1/2
10 0 GO BALLISTIC SR/TT B Shinn · D E Ferraris 6 11.0 15
11 0 WINNING GENGHIS B-/H-/SR- C Wong · Y S Tsui 8 63.0 19
12 0 VEGA RHYTHM B/H M Chadwick · L Ho 13 11.0 29-1/2
13 0 AEROSONIC P/TT J Moreira · J Size 10 32.0 59-3/4
14 0 GORGEOUS INHERITOR T Piccone · C H Yip 7 75.0 71-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-06-26 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on WET SLOW going. LUCKY VICTOR, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by K H Ting, won by 2, with RUBY STARS second and KA FORTUNE third. The winner led throughout. The 5.6 favourite KA YING BRILLIANCE finished 8th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LUCKY VICTOR—2. RUBY STARS+2L3. KA FORTUNE+2.5L4. CALIFORNIA LEGEND+3L5. GENERAL DINO+3.5L6. FIGURES TWO+4L7. KEEP WINNING+7.25L8. KA YING BRILLIANCE+8.25L9. RUN DES RUN+9.5L10. GO BALLISTIC+15L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick KA YING BRILLIANCE (18.2%) finished 8th — the winner LUCKY VICTOR was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 KA YING BRILLIANCE 18.2% 5.50 8
2 0 CALIFORNIA LEGEND 16.3% 6.13 4
3 0 RUN DES RUN 15.3% 6.55 9
4 0 AEROSONIC 10.5% 9.57 13
5 0 LUCKY VICTOR 7.1% 14.14 1
6 0 KA FORTUNE 6.5% 15.45 3
7 0 VEGA RHYTHM 5.4% 18.36 12
8 0 GENERAL DINO 5.1% 19.63 5
9 0 GORGEOUS INHERITOR 4.2% 24.01 14
10 0 RUBY STARS 3.4% 29.64 2
11 0 GO BALLISTIC 3.3% 30.76 10
12 0 FIGURES TWO 2.4% 42.25 6
13 0 KEEP WINNING 1.5% 67.95 7
14 0 WINNING GENGHIS 1.0% 95.25 11
KA YING BRILLIANCECALIFORNIA LEGENDRUN DES RUNAEROSONICLUCKY VICTOR — wonKA FORTUNEVEGA RHYTHMGENERAL DINOGORGEOUS INHERITORRUBY STARSGO BALLISTICFIGURES TWOKEEP WINNINGWINNING GENGHIS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 223.5

PLACE

3 49.5

5 23

13 63.5

QUINELLA

3,13 1,316

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 205

3,13 347

5,13 256

FORECAST

13,3 1,412

TIERCE

13,3,5 28,919

TRIO

3,5,13 5,356

FIRST 4

1,3,5,13 6,247

QUARTET

13,3,5,1 158,931

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 17.5

A1 —