Happy Valley · 2021-07-14
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2021-07-14 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. RED IMPACT, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by D A Hayes, won by NOSE, with LAND POWER second and ZHAN JIANG ROCKS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite SUN OF MAKFI finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | RED IMPACT Closed strongly 1.39.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · D A Hayes | C Y Ho | D A Hayes | 2 | 6.5 | NOSE |
| 2 | 5 | LAND POWER B/TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 6 | 6.8 | NOSE |
| 3 | 6 | ZHAN JIANG ROCKS Closed strongly TT A Hamelin · W Y So | A Hamelin | W Y So | 12 | 12.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 8 | CHARIZARD Closed strongly B/TT T Piccone · D E Ferraris | T Piccone | D E Ferraris | 11 | 17.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | SUPER FAST Closed strongly XB C L Chau · K W Lui | C L Chau | K W Lui | 10 | 7.3 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 7 | SUN OF MAKFI Closed strongly XB C Schofield · D J Hall | C Schofield | D J Hall | 5 | 3.6 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 4 | BLAZING BEAT Closed strongly XB R Maia · C W Chang | R Maia | C W Chang | 7 | 59.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 8 | 10 | ON EXCEL STAR XB/B1 J Moreira · C H Yip | J Moreira | C H Yip | 9 | 6.2 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 1 | CHEERFUL LEADER B-/XB K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 4 | 20.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 10 | 12 | PRIME STAR Led early B/TT H T Mo · A T Millard | H T Mo | A T Millard | 3 | 70.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 9 | MANNA FROM HEAVEN XB H Bentley · K L Man | H Bentley | K L Man | 8 | 17.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 12 | 2 | STRIVE FOR GLORY TT K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 1 | 17.0 | 10 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | ON EXCEL STAR | 20.7% | 4.84 | 8 |
| 2 | 3 | SUPER FAST | 18.9% | 5.29 | 5 |
| 3 | 7 | SUN OF MAKFI | 13.9% | 7.21 | 6 |
| 4 | 5 | LAND POWER | 10.7% | 9.35 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | MANNA FROM HEAVEN | 6.5% | 15.49 | 11 |
| 6 | 2 | STRIVE FOR GLORY | 5.4% | 18.38 | 12 |
| 7 | 6 | ZHAN JIANG ROCKS | 5.2% | 19.22 | 3 |
| 8 | 1 | CHEERFUL LEADER | 4.9% | 20.58 | 9 |
| 9 | 11 | RED IMPACT | 4.8% | 20.70 | 1 |
| 10 | 8 | CHARIZARD | 4.6% | 21.55 | 4 |
| 11 | 4 | BLAZING BEAT | 2.7% | 37.27 | 7 |
| 12 | 12 | PRIME STAR | 1.8% | 56.93 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 65
PLACE
5 23.5
6 36.5
11 24.5
QUINELLA
5,11 289
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 134
5,11 98.5
6,11 151.5
FORECAST
11,5 547
TIERCE
11,5,6 4,828
TRIO
5,6,11 1,286
FIRST 4
5,6,8,11 3,208
QUARTET
11,5,6,8 59,686
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
9,10>4,7/5,6,11 2,303,233
3 PICK 1
A2 22
A3 —
A1 —
4TH DOUBLE
9/5 230
9/11 1,218