Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2021-07-14

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course B 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2021-07-14 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. RESOLUTE, ridden by H Bentley and trained by A T Millard, won by 1-1/4, with BE READY second and QUADRUPLE DOUBLE third. The 2.3 favourite BRILLIANT FORTUNE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 0.56.24
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 RESOLUTE B 0.56.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · A T Millard 7 8.3 1-1/4
2 1 BE READY V C Schofield · F C Lor 1 10.0 1-1/4
3 4 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE TT H T Mo · D J Hall 10 32.0 2-1/2
4 10 WILD WEST WING K Teetan · J Size 12 14.0 2-3/4
5 6 BRILLIANT FORTUNE B1/H1 J Moreira · C Fownes 4 2.3 3-1/2
6 7 SKY FOREVER TT1 K C Leung · K L Man 9 116.0 3-3/4
7 2 HIGH RISE SOLDIER PC C Y Ho · K W Lui 3 12.0 4
8 3 METRO WARRIOR B B Shinn · D A Hayes 6 8.7 4-1/4
9 8 HEART CONQUERED T Piccone · R Gibson 11 12.0 4-1/4
10 11 SMART LEADER B/TT V Borges · W Y So 5 91.0 5-3/4
11 12 SPARKLING KNIGHT B H W Lai · C H Yip 2 22.0 8-1/4
12 5 STORM WARNINGS CP-/SR-/B1/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte 8 7.8 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RESOLUTE2. BE READY+1.25L3. QUADRUPLE DOUBLE+2.5L4. WILD WEST WING+2.75L5. BRILLIANT FORTUNE+3.5L6. SKY FOREVER+3.75L7. HIGH RISE SOLDIER+4L8. METRO WARRIOR+4.25L9. HEART CONQUERED+4.25L10. SMART LEADER+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick BRILLIANT FORTUNE (36.4%) finished 5th — the winner RESOLUTE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 BRILLIANT FORTUNE 36.4% 2.75 5
2 3 METRO WARRIOR 13.6% 7.35 8
3 1 BE READY 8.3% 12.06 2
4 5 STORM WARNINGS 7.4% 13.56 12
5 9 RESOLUTE 6.9% 14.47 1
6 2 HIGH RISE SOLDIER 6.8% 14.69 7
7 8 HEART CONQUERED 5.9% 16.97 9
8 10 WILD WEST WING 4.9% 20.52 4
9 4 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE 3.7% 26.98 3
10 12 SPARKLING KNIGHT 3.1% 32.01 11
11 11 SMART LEADER 1.6% 64.30 10
12 7 SKY FOREVER 1.5% 66.27 6
BRILLIANT FORTUNEMETRO WARRIORBE READYSTORM WARNINGSRESOLUTE — wonHIGH RISE SOLDIERHEART CONQUEREDWILD WEST WINGQUADRUPLE DOUBLESPARKLING KNIGHTSMART LEADERSKY FOREVER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 83.5

PLACE

1 27.5

4 70

9 22.5

QUINELLA

1,9 386.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 366

1,9 123

4,9 402.5

FORECAST

9,1 869

TIERCE

9,1,4 17,032

TRIO

1,4,9 4,742

FIRST 4

1,4,9,10 10,295

QUARTET

9,1,4,10 200,691

All pools (4 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

5,8,9/1,4,9 227,140

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 26.5

A1

6TH DOUBLE

9/1 53

9/9 672

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

5,6,11/5,8,9/Any Combination 6,816