Happy Valley · 2021-07-14
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2021-07-14 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. RESOLUTE, ridden by H Bentley and trained by A T Millard, won by 1-1/4, with BE READY second and QUADRUPLE DOUBLE third. The 2.3 favourite BRILLIANT FORTUNE finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | RESOLUTE B 0.56.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · A T Millard | H Bentley | A T Millard | 7 | 8.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 1 | BE READY V C Schofield · F C Lor | C Schofield | F C Lor | 1 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 4 | QUADRUPLE DOUBLE TT H T Mo · D J Hall | H T Mo | D J Hall | 10 | 32.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 10 | WILD WEST WING K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 12 | 14.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 6 | BRILLIANT FORTUNE B1/H1 J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 4 | 2.3 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | SKY FOREVER TT1 K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 9 | 116.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER PC C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 3 | 12.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 3 | METRO WARRIOR B B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 6 | 8.7 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 8 | HEART CONQUERED T Piccone · R Gibson | T Piccone | R Gibson | 11 | 12.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | SMART LEADER B/TT V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 5 | 91.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | SPARKLING KNIGHT B H W Lai · C H Yip | H W Lai | C H Yip | 2 | 22.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 5 | STORM WARNINGS CP-/SR-/B1/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 8 | 7.8 | 11 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | BRILLIANT FORTUNE | 36.4% | 2.75 | 5 |
| 2 | 3 | METRO WARRIOR | 13.6% | 7.35 | 8 |
| 3 | 1 | BE READY | 8.3% | 12.06 | 2 |
| 4 | 5 | STORM WARNINGS | 7.4% | 13.56 | 12 |
| 5 | 9 | RESOLUTE | 6.9% | 14.47 | 1 |
| 6 | 2 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER | 6.8% | 14.69 | 7 |
| 7 | 8 | HEART CONQUERED | 5.9% | 16.97 | 9 |
| 8 | 10 | WILD WEST WING | 4.9% | 20.52 | 4 |
| 9 | 4 | QUADRUPLE DOUBLE | 3.7% | 26.98 | 3 |
| 10 | 12 | SPARKLING KNIGHT | 3.1% | 32.01 | 11 |
| 11 | 11 | SMART LEADER | 1.6% | 64.30 | 10 |
| 12 | 7 | SKY FOREVER | 1.5% | 66.27 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 83.5
PLACE
1 27.5
4 70
9 22.5
QUINELLA
1,9 386.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 366
1,9 123
4,9 402.5
FORECAST
9,1 869
TIERCE
9,1,4 17,032
TRIO
1,4,9 4,742
FIRST 4
1,4,9,10 10,295
QUARTET
9,1,4,10 200,691
All pools (4 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
5,8,9/1,4,9 227,140
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 26.5
A1 —
6TH DOUBLE
9/1 53
9/9 672
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
5,6,11/5,8,9/Any Combination 6,816