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Happy Valley · 2021-07-14

Race 8

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.38.84
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 HELENE WISDOM STAR Closed strongly H/TT 1.38.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · A S Cruz 6 8.1 SH
2 0 TELECOM FIGHTERS Led early T Piccone · Y S Tsui 8 5.1 SH
3 0 HALL OF CHAMP Closed strongly TT K C Leung · C Fownes 10 9.3 HD
4 0 GIFT OF LIFELINE Closed strongly B K Teetan · A T Millard 3 4.6 1-1/4
5 0 MAGNIFICENT H T Mo · K H Ting 7 20.0 1-1/4
6 0 FLAGSHIP GLORY TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 11 4.8 2-1/2
7 0 KASI FARASI C Wong · C H Yip 1 41.0 2-3/4
8 0 BEAUTY FIT Closed strongly E J Moreira · J Size 12 6.6 3
9 0 HOLY HEART PC/TT H Bentley · K W Lui 4 30.0 3-1/4
10 0 LAKESHORE EAGLE Closed strongly V/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 2 11.0 3-1/2
11 0 LOBO'S LEGEND V Borges · P O'Sullivan 5 106.0 6-1/4
12 0 GREEN LASER A Hamelin · D E Ferraris 9 181.0 7-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2021-07-14 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HELENE WISDOM STAR, ridden by N Callan and trained by A S Cruz, won by SH, with TELECOM FIGHTERS second and HALL OF CHAMP third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.6 favourite GIFT OF LIFELINE finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HELENE WISDOM STAR—2. TELECOM FIGHTERS+0.1L3. HALL OF CHAMP+0.2L4. GIFT OF LIFELINE+1.25L5. MAGNIFICENT+1.25L6. FLAGSHIP GLORY+2.5L7. KASI FARASI+2.75L8. BEAUTY FIT+3L9. HOLY HEART+3.25L10. LAKESHORE EAGLE+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick BEAUTY FIT (30.6%) finished 8th — the winner HELENE WISDOM STAR was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BEAUTY FIT 30.6% 3.27 8
2 0 TELECOM FIGHTERS 13.8% 7.27 2
3 0 GIFT OF LIFELINE 11.9% 8.39 4
4 0 FLAGSHIP GLORY 10.2% 9.80 6
5 0 LAKESHORE EAGLE 7.4% 13.46 10
6 0 HELENE WISDOM STAR 6.4% 15.73 1
7 0 HALL OF CHAMP 5.9% 17.00 3
8 0 KASI FARASI 4.6% 21.64 7
9 0 HOLY HEART 3.4% 29.51 9
10 0 MAGNIFICENT 3.0% 33.90 5
11 0 LOBO'S LEGEND 2.4% 41.56 11
12 0 GREEN LASER 0.5% 201.58 12
BEAUTY FITTELECOM FIGHTERSGIFT OF LIFELINEFLAGSHIP GLORYLAKESHORE EAGLEHELENE WISDOM STAR — wonHALL OF CHAMPKASI FARASIHOLY HEARTMAGNIFICENTLOBO'S LEGENDGREEN LASER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 81.5

PLACE

8 18

9 25

11 29.5

QUINELLA

8,9 192

QUINELLA PLACE

8,9 77.5

8,11 82

9,11 128

FORECAST

9,8 492

TIERCE

9,8,11 3,287

TRIO

8,9,11 531

FIRST 4

8,9,10,11 439

QUARTET

9,8,11,10 11,640

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 30

A3 —

A2 —

7TH DOUBLE

9/8 112.5

9/9 850.5