Happy Valley · 2021-07-14
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2021-07-14 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SPARKLING DRAGON, ridden by K C Leung and trained by A T Millard, won by N, with LOVING A BOOM second and IGNITING third. The 4.2 favourite IGNITING finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | SPARKLING DRAGON TT 1.08.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · A T Millard | K C Leung | A T Millard | 4 | 8.0 | N |
| 2 | 6 | LOVING A BOOM TT C L Chau · R Gibson | C L Chau | R Gibson | 8 | 9.0 | N |
| 3 | 5 | IGNITING B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 3 | 4.2 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | ALL IN MIND H/XB/CP1/TT N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 9 | 10.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 10 | FAMILY FOLKS CP H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 11 | 30.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | SUPER WINNER TT J Moreira · C H Yip | J Moreira | C H Yip | 2 | 5.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 8 | WHEN YOU BELIEVE CP/TT B Shinn · F C Lor | B Shinn | F C Lor | 7 | 6.7 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | AMAZING ONE PLUS XB/TT A Hamelin · T P Yung | A Hamelin | T P Yung | 10 | 149.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 1 | GOLDEN DASH B/TT H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 12 | 57.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | WAR WEAPON TT K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 1 | 5.4 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 12 | BABY B V Borges · K H Ting | V Borges | K H Ting | 6 | 40.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 3 | MR CROISSANT CP T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 5 | 19.0 | 15-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | SUPER WINNER | 32.5% | 3.08 | 6 |
| 2 | 11 | WAR WEAPON | 19.2% | 5.21 | 10 |
| 3 | 5 | IGNITING | 12.7% | 7.87 | 3 |
| 4 | 6 | LOVING A BOOM | 7.4% | 13.43 | 2 |
| 5 | 10 | FAMILY FOLKS | 5.9% | 16.92 | 5 |
| 6 | 8 | WHEN YOU BELIEVE | 5.2% | 19.06 | 7 |
| 7 | 7 | ALL IN MIND | 4.8% | 20.71 | 4 |
| 8 | 4 | SPARKLING DRAGON | 3.6% | 27.69 | 1 |
| 9 | 3 | MR CROISSANT | 2.4% | 41.56 | 12 |
| 10 | 1 | GOLDEN DASH | 2.4% | 42.26 | 9 |
| 11 | 2 | AMAZING ONE PLUS | 2.3% | 44.34 | 8 |
| 12 | 12 | BABY | 1.5% | 65.37 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 80.5
PLACE
4 25
5 16
6 24
QUINELLA
4,6 333
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 55.5
4,6 103
5,6 57.5
FORECAST
4,6 566
TIERCE
4,6,5 1,735
TRIO
4,5,6 316
FIRST 4
4,5,6,7 690
QUARTET
4,6,5,7 16,717
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 24.5
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
8,9,11/4,5,6 28,465
8TH DOUBLE
9/4 955
9/6 64.5
SIX UP
9,10/5,11/8,9/1,9/8,9/4,6 125,027
2 [C Y Ho] —
TREBLE
9/9/4 18,074
9/9/6 1,836