Happy Valley · 2021-09-22

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course C+3 8 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-09-22 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. FAST PACE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 3/4, with METHANE second and GOD OF DRAGON third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.48.34

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	5	FAST PACE Wire to wire H 1.48.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes	J Moreira	C Fownes	1	124 lb	2.0	3/4
2	2	METHANE Closed strongly B Shinn · D E Ferraris	B Shinn	D E Ferraris	2	127 lb	6.2	3/4
3	3	GOD OF DRAGON H-/B2/XB2 C L Chau · D J Whyte	C L Chau	D J Whyte	3	121 lb	7.4	2-1/2
4	4	VILLA FIONN Closed strongly B A Hamelin · P F Yiu	A Hamelin	P F Yiu	8	126 lb	35.0	3-3/4
5	1	MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly V K Teetan · C H Yip	K Teetan	C H Yip	5	129 lb	5.6	4-1/4
6	7	KUNGFUMASTER PANDA B/TT K C Leung · P O'Sullivan	K C Leung	P O'Sullivan	4	119 lb	27.0	4-3/4
7	6	RED ELYSEES Closed strongly B L Ferraris · K L Man	L Ferraris	K L Man	7	121 lb	13.0	5
8	8	ZHAN JIANG ROCKS TT A Badel · W Y So	A Badel	W Y So	6	118 lb	9.5	5-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick FAST PACE (55.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	5	FAST PACE	55.1%	1.81	1	2.0
2	8	ZHAN JIANG ROCKS	11.8%	8.51	8	9.5
3	2	METHANE	9.3%	10.72	2	6.2
4	1	MURRAY'S PARTNERS	7.1%	14.02	5	5.6
5	3	GOD OF DRAGON	5.7%	17.40	3	7.4
6	7	KUNGFUMASTER PANDA	4.6%	21.64	6	27.0
7	6	RED ELYSEES	3.4%	29.15	7	13.0
8	4	VILLA FIONN	2.9%	34.90	4	35.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 20.5

PLACE

2 17.5

3 18

5 11.5

QUINELLA

2,5 55

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 59

2,5 25

3,5 26

FORECAST

5,2 111

TIERCE

5,2,3 394

TRIO

2,3,5 102

FIRST 4

2,3,4,5 682

QUARTET

5,2,3,4 5,967

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 15

A2 —

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Happy Valley 1800m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99