Happy Valley · 2021-09-22
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2021-09-22 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. ALL BEAUTY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by 1, with AURORA PEGASUS second and DESTIN third. The 2.7 favourite MANAGEMENT SUPREME finished 9th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | ALL BEAUTY CP1 1.09.30 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 6 | 7.3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | AURORA PEGASUS TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 9 | 15.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 12 | DESTIN B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 7 | 19.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 10 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 4 | 4.6 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 2 | JOYFUL WIN B H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 12 | 19.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 9 | TAKINGUFURTHER V H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 5 | 21.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 6 | NOBLE DESIRE SR/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 8 | 9.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 8 | WINNING STEED B/H K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 2 | 14.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 4 | MANAGEMENT SUPREME TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 3 | 2.7 | 4 |
| 10 | 7 | RED BRICK FIGHTER B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 11 | 43.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 1 | TRADER B-/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 10 | 18.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 12 | 11 | CHIKORITA XB/TT H T Mo · R Gibson | H T Mo | R Gibson | 1 | 44.0 | 5-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | MANAGEMENT SUPREME | 21.6% | 4.63 | 9 |
| 2 | 5 | ALL BEAUTY | 15.2% | 6.56 | 1 |
| 3 | 6 | NOBLE DESIRE | 10.4% | 9.57 | 7 |
| 4 | 2 | JOYFUL WIN | 9.9% | 10.07 | 5 |
| 5 | 10 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS | 9.7% | 10.30 | 4 |
| 6 | 8 | WINNING STEED | 6.1% | 16.47 | 8 |
| 7 | 3 | AURORA PEGASUS | 5.5% | 18.09 | 2 |
| 8 | 11 | CHIKORITA | 5.2% | 19.14 | 12 |
| 9 | 12 | DESTIN | 4.7% | 21.25 | 3 |
| 10 | 1 | TRADER | 4.2% | 23.84 | 11 |
| 11 | 7 | RED BRICK FIGHTER | 4.0% | 24.80 | 10 |
| 12 | 9 | TAKINGUFURTHER | 3.3% | 30.31 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 73
PLACE
3 40.5
5 24
12 57
QUINELLA
3,5 666
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 192.5
3,12 414.5
5,12 233
FORECAST
5,3 1,193
TIERCE
5,3,12 16,556
TRIO
3,5,12 3,426
FIRST 4
3,5,10,12 3,694
QUARTET
5,3,12,10 116,690
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 31.5
A3 —
A1 —
4TH DOUBLE
5/3 130.5
5/5 661