Happy Valley · 2021-09-22
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2021-09-22 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SEVEN HEAVENS, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/2, with TRANSCENDENT second and QUADRUPLE DOUBLE third. The 3.4 favourite QUADRUPLE DOUBLE finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SEVEN HEAVENS B/TT 1.08.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 5 | 9.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 5 | TRANSCENDENT CP/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 1 | 6.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 4 | QUADRUPLE DOUBLE TT Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 2 | 3.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | HARMONY N HOME M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 11 | 29.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 2 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER PC C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 6 | 15.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 8 | LIKE THAT V K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 8 | 11.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 10 | RHAPSODY A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 10 | 74.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | DECISIVE TWELVE TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 3 | 4.6 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 9 | HARRIER JET B C L Chau · P O'Sullivan | C L Chau | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 49.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 12 | TELECOM ROCKET B C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 4 | 41.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | HERE COMES TED B/TT M Chadwick · D E Ferraris | M Chadwick | D E Ferraris | 12 | 21.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 3 | MIGHTY VALOR CP1 J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 7 | 6.9 | 13 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | DECISIVE TWELVE | 25.7% | 3.90 | 8 |
| 2 | 4 | QUADRUPLE DOUBLE | 14.9% | 6.69 | 3 |
| 3 | 12 | TELECOM ROCKET | 8.0% | 12.55 | 10 |
| 4 | 5 | TRANSCENDENT | 7.9% | 12.73 | 2 |
| 5 | 3 | MIGHTY VALOR | 7.7% | 13.06 | 12 |
| 6 | 2 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER | 7.4% | 13.60 | 5 |
| 7 | 8 | LIKE THAT | 6.2% | 16.23 | 6 |
| 8 | 11 | HERE COMES TED | 5.5% | 18.04 | 11 |
| 9 | 7 | SEVEN HEAVENS | 4.7% | 21.22 | 1 |
| 10 | 6 | HARMONY N HOME | 4.2% | 23.54 | 4 |
| 11 | 9 | HARRIER JET | 4.2% | 23.85 | 9 |
| 12 | 10 | RHAPSODY | 3.7% | 26.97 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 96.5
PLACE
4 15
5 21
7 24.5
QUINELLA
5,7 391.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 42.5
4,7 55.5
5,7 126
FORECAST
7,5 911
TIERCE
7,5,4 3,625
TRIO
4,5,7 392
FIRST 4
4,5,6,7 1,793
QUARTET
7,5,4,6 47,191
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 30
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,9,11/4,5,7 43,208
7TH DOUBLE
11/5 29
11/7 578.5
SIX UP
1,4/4,5/3,5/6,7/9,11/5,7 12,686
1/5/5/6/11/7 6,332,583
2 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
6/11/5 85
6/11/7 2,663