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Happy Valley · 2021-09-22

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course C+3 10 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2021-09-22 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HARMONY N BLESSED, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by 2-1/4, with HEART CONQUERED second and HARMONY FIRE third. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.55.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 HARMONY N BLESSED BO/XB/TT 0.55.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes 3 2.1 2-1/4
2 7 HEART CONQUERED T Piccone · R Gibson 8 9.9 2-1/4
3 3 HARMONY FIRE XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 2 4.2 2-1/2
4 8 BRILLIANT LIFE A Hamelin · C H Yip 4 100.0 3-1/4
5 9 JAZZ STEED TT A Badel · C Fownes 9 17.0 4
6 5 GUNNISON K C Leung · Y S Tsui 6 20.0 6
7 2 HONG KONG BET B1/TT J Moreira · W Y So 5 5.7 6-3/4
8 4 WINE AND WINE TT K H Chan · T P Yung 10 37.0 7
9 1 FLYING GENIUS B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 1 14.0 7-3/4
10 10 WILD WEST WING V Borges · J Size 7 55.0 8-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HARMONY N BLESSED2. HEART CONQUERED+2.25L3. HARMONY FIRE+2.5L4. BRILLIANT LIFE+3.25L5. JAZZ STEED+4L6. GUNNISON+6L7. HONG KONG BET+6.75L8. WINE AND WINE+7L9. FLYING GENIUS+7.75L10. WILD WEST WING+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick HARMONY FIRE (27.2%) finished 3rd — the winner HARMONY N BLESSED was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 HARMONY FIRE 27.2% 3.67 3
2 2 HONG KONG BET 20.8% 4.81 7
3 6 HARMONY N BLESSED 19.4% 5.14 1
4 7 HEART CONQUERED 10.4% 9.59 2
5 9 JAZZ STEED 6.9% 14.43 5
6 1 FLYING GENIUS 5.4% 18.65 9
7 10 WILD WEST WING 3.3% 30.37 10
8 4 WINE AND WINE 3.1% 31.89 8
9 5 GUNNISON 2.1% 48.17 6
10 8 BRILLIANT LIFE 1.3% 74.77 4
HARMONY FIREHONG KONG BETHARMONY N BLESSED — wonHEART CONQUEREDJAZZ STEEDFLYING GENIUSWILD WEST WINGWINE AND WINEGUNNISONBRILLIANT LIFE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 21.5

PLACE

3 14.5

6 12

7 24.5

QUINELLA

6,7 115.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 22.5

3,7 66.5

6,7 44

FORECAST

6,7 231

TIERCE

6,7,3 659

TRIO

3,6,7 132

FIRST 4

3,6,7,8 1,289

QUARTET

6,7,3,8 17,602

All pools (5 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,12/3,6,7 78,115

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 14

A3

5TH DOUBLE

5/6 225.5

5/7 131

TRIPLE TRIO

3,4,5/3,5,12/3,6,7 4,550,089

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,4,5/3,5,12/Any Combination 29,893