Happy Valley · 2021-09-22
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2021-09-22 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MOMENTUM GALAXY, ridden by K C Leung and trained by K H Ting, won by 3/4, with FABULOUS EIGHT second and KA YING SPIRIT third. The 2.8 favourite PARTY WARRIOR finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | MOMENTUM GALAXY B 0.56.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 4 | 10.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 4 | FABULOUS EIGHT B1/TT J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 1 | 4.6 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 3 | KA YING SPIRIT B Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 9 | 4.1 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | PARTY WARRIOR H C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 7 | 2.8 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 9 | NOIR RIDER B A Badel · T P Yung | A Badel | T P Yung | 5 | 7.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | REGENCY STAR H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 10 | 47.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 1 | EUROMISSILE CP/XB/TT- H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 6 | 112.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 8 | CHEVAL VALIANT XB/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 8 | 30.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | SUPER COMMANDER TT B Shinn · D E Ferraris | B Shinn | D E Ferraris | 3 | 12.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | SIMPLE DOCTRINE CP-/XB/B1 M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 2 | 124.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | TRAVEL DATUK B M Chadwick · R Gibson | M Chadwick | R Gibson | 11 | 78.0 | 5-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | KA YING SPIRIT | 47.4% | 2.11 | 3 |
| 2 | 2 | PARTY WARRIOR | 10.0% | 10.00 | 4 |
| 3 | 6 | SUPER COMMANDER | 9.9% | 10.11 | 9 |
| 4 | 4 | FABULOUS EIGHT | 9.8% | 10.17 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | NOIR RIDER | 8.6% | 11.56 | 5 |
| 6 | 8 | CHEVAL VALIANT | 5.4% | 18.54 | 8 |
| 7 | 5 | MOMENTUM GALAXY | 4.5% | 22.26 | 1 |
| 8 | 7 | REGENCY STAR | 1.7% | 58.15 | 6 |
| 9 | 10 | TRAVEL DATUK | 1.5% | 67.79 | 11 |
| 10 | 11 | SIMPLE DOCTRINE | 0.7% | 151.23 | 10 |
| 11 | 1 | EUROMISSILE | 0.5% | 196.67 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 104.5
PLACE
3 17.5
4 16
5 24
QUINELLA
4,5 200
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 38.5
3,5 84.5
4,5 65.5
FORECAST
5,4 395
TIERCE
5,4,3 2,436
TRIO
3,4,5 312
FIRST 4
2,3,4,5 114
QUARTET
5,4,3,2 4,221
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,8/3,4,5 235,142
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 22
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE
1/4 191.5
1/5 1,149