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Sha Tin · 2021-10-17

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.75
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 CHEERFUL DAYS Closed strongly B 1.21.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui 8 10.0 1/2
2 0 HEARTY WISH Closed strongly SR/H1/TT1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 13 87.0 1/2
3 0 ROMANTIC COMBO Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · C S Shum 2 3.6 1/2
4 0 INFINITE POWER Led early CP M F Poon · F C Lor 14 13.0 2-1/4
5 0 COUNTRY BOY H/P/TT K Teetan · J Size 3 7.8 2-1/2
6 0 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE Closed strongly CP1/TT M Chadwick · R Gibson 11 21.0 3
7 0 HAPPY WIN WIN Closed strongly TT C Wong · C H Yip 9 163.0 5-1/4
8 0 UNIVERSAL HERO Closed strongly A Hamelin · Y S Tsui 12 229.0 5-3/4
9 0 VOYAGE STAR V/TT C Y Ho · T P Yung 7 11.0 5-3/4
10 0 MONSTER KAKA TT H T Mo · D J Hall 6 17.0 7-1/4
11 0 KING OF THE COURT A Badel · W Y So 1 2.8 9-1/4
12 0 SHADOW RUNNER B-/TT K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 4 59.0 10-1/4
13 0 LOVE ME MORE L Ferraris · P F Yiu 5 26.0 11-1/4
14 0 UTOPIA LIFE B C Schofield · K L Man 10 80.0 15-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-10-17 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. CHEERFUL DAYS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by 1/2, with HEARTY WISH second and ROMANTIC COMBO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite KING OF THE COURT finished 11th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHEERFUL DAYS—2. HEARTY WISH+0.5L3. ROMANTIC COMBO+0.5L4. INFINITE POWER+2.25L5. COUNTRY BOY+2.5L6. PRESIDENT'S CHOICE+3L7. HAPPY WIN WIN+5.25L8. UNIVERSAL HERO+5.75L9. VOYAGE STAR+5.75L10. MONSTER KAKA+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick KING OF THE COURT (27.5%) finished 11th — the winner CHEERFUL DAYS was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 KING OF THE COURT 27.5% 3.63 11
2 0 ROMANTIC COMBO 18.0% 5.57 3
3 0 COUNTRY BOY 14.5% 6.88 5
4 0 VOYAGE STAR 8.9% 11.23 9
5 0 INFINITE POWER 7.3% 13.65 4
6 0 CHEERFUL DAYS 6.0% 16.55 1
7 0 UTOPIA LIFE 3.3% 30.67 14
8 0 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE 3.1% 31.76 6
9 0 MONSTER KAKA 3.0% 33.63 10
10 0 LOVE ME MORE 2.9% 34.47 13
11 0 SHADOW RUNNER 1.7% 60.20 12
12 0 HAPPY WIN WIN 1.6% 63.85 7
13 0 HEARTY WISH 1.5% 68.76 2
14 0 UNIVERSAL HERO 0.7% 137.29 8
KING OF THE COURTROMANTIC COMBOCOUNTRY BOYVOYAGE STARINFINITE POWERCHEERFUL DAYS — wonUTOPIA LIFEPRESIDENT'S CHOICEMONSTER KAKALOVE ME MORESHADOW RUNNERHAPPY WIN WINHEARTY WISHUNIVERSAL HERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 108.5

PLACE

2 31.5

3 13

10 184

QUINELLA

2,10 3,121

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 64

2,10 722.5

3,10 556

FORECAST

2,10 5,768

TIERCE

2,10,3 33,387

TRIO

2,3,10 3,452

FIRST 4

2,3,4,10 11,008

QUARTET

2,10,3,4 382,433

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

2/2 776.5

2/10 707.5

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 29.5

A1 —