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Sha Tin · 2021-10-17

Race 10

Class 2 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 13 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2021-10-17 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. TRILLION WIN, ridden by A Badel and trained by K L Man, won by SH, with LUCKY MORE second and FANTASTIC TREASURE third. The 2.5 favourite FANTASTIC TREASURE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.08.89
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 TRILLION WIN CP 1.08.89 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · K L Man 1 4.2 SH
2 9 LUCKY MORE CP/XB Z Purton · C S Shum 10 18.0 SH
3 2 FANTASTIC TREASURE C Schofield · D A Hayes 9 2.5 HD
4 12 FANTASTIC WAY J Moreira · J Size 12 5.0 1/2
5 3 CALIFORNIA RAD B/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 11 8.6 1
6 8 SEATTLE CHOICE L Ferraris · A T Millard 5 117.0 2
7 7 GOLDEN DASH B/TT H Bentley · C S Shum 6 67.0 2-1/2
8 5 VALIANT DREAM H T Mo · K W Lui 13 110.0 2-1/2
9 11 SCORES OF FUN TT K Teetan · J Size 8 39.0 2-3/4
10 1 WINNING DREAMER CP1/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 4 8.7 2-3/4
11 13 SUNNY BOY B/TT H W Lai · W Y So 3 306.0 3
12 10 GOLD CHEST CP/TT M F Poon · R Gibson 2 46.0 5-1/2
13 4 PING HAI BRAVO E-/TT A Hamelin · J Size 7 134.0 5-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TRILLION WIN2. LUCKY MORE+0.1L3. FANTASTIC TREASURE+0.2L4. FANTASTIC WAY+0.5L5. CALIFORNIA RAD+1L6. SEATTLE CHOICE+2L7. GOLDEN DASH+2.5L8. VALIANT DREAM+2.5L9. SCORES OF FUN+2.75L10. WINNING DREAMER+2.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick FANTASTIC WAY (33.1%) finished 4th — the winner TRILLION WIN was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 FANTASTIC WAY 33.1% 3.03 4
2 2 FANTASTIC TREASURE 25.0% 4.00 3
3 6 TRILLION WIN 15.8% 6.33 1
4 1 WINNING DREAMER 5.5% 18.29 10
5 9 LUCKY MORE 4.2% 23.64 2
6 3 CALIFORNIA RAD 3.1% 32.36 5
7 11 SCORES OF FUN 2.8% 35.92 9
8 10 GOLD CHEST 2.7% 36.69 12
9 8 SEATTLE CHOICE 2.1% 47.54 6
10 7 GOLDEN DASH 1.9% 53.84 7
11 4 PING HAI BRAVO 1.7% 58.19 13
12 5 VALIANT DREAM 1.7% 59.31 8
13 13 SUNNY BOY 0.5% 192.44 11
FANTASTIC WAYFANTASTIC TREASURETRILLION WIN — wonWINNING DREAMERLUCKY MORECALIFORNIA RADSCORES OF FUNGOLD CHESTSEATTLE CHOICEGOLDEN DASHPING HAI BRAVOVALIANT DREAMSUNNY BOY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 42.5

PLACE

2 14

6 15

9 41

QUINELLA

6,9 278

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 29.5

2,9 94

6,9 86.5

FORECAST

6,9 778

TIERCE

6,9,2 2,042

TRIO

2,6,9 305

FIRST 4

2,6,9,12 321

QUARTET

6,9,2,12 13,282

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 18

A3

A1

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,9,14/2,6,9 6,489

9TH DOUBLE

2/6 141.5

2/9 112

SIX UP

1/5/10/5/2/6 788,402

1,11/5,7/9,10/5,12/2,9/6,9 30,898

3 [Z Purton]

TREBLE

5/2/6 867

5/2/9 618