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Sha Tin · 2021-10-17

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-10-17 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SEASONS BLISS, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K H Ting, won by 3/4, with WHIZZ KID second and GOOD NEWS third. The 3.8 favourite WHIZZ KID finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.43
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 SEASONS BLISS B1 1.09.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K H Ting 6 9.1 3/4
2 5 WHIZZ KID B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 3 3.8 3/4
3 6 GOOD NEWS TT C Schofield · W Y So 4 9.5 1-1/2
4 13 MILLENNIUM FALCON H V Borges · T P Yung 8 9.9 2
5 4 INFINITY WIN TT1 B Shinn · D A Hayes 11 9.0 2-1/4
6 7 DR WINNING TT1 A Badel · J Size 14 19.0 2-3/4
7 3 PARTY WARRIOR H J Moreira · K W Lui 1 5.5 2-3/4
8 1 VICTORY SCHOLARS CP Z Purton · D J Hall 2 5.6 3
9 10 LORIZ B A Hamelin · P F Yiu 5 34.0 3
10 2 SUPER RED DRAGON B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 9 45.0 3
11 14 MOON PEAKS B/H H W Lai · Y S Tsui 12 78.0 3-1/2
12 12 TAKE WHAT YOU NEED SR-/V2 C L Chau · D J Whyte 10 32.0 5
13 9 JUDY'S STAR B M F Poon · P O'Sullivan 13 98.0 5-1/4
14 8 ISLAND SURPRISE B- K C Leung · K L Man 7 228.0 6-1/2
0 HERCULES H Bentley · C H Yip

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SEASONS BLISS2. WHIZZ KID+0.75L3. GOOD NEWS+1.5L4. MILLENNIUM FALCON+2L5. INFINITY WIN+2.25L6. DR WINNING+2.75L7. PARTY WARRIOR+2.75L8. VICTORY SCHOLARS+3L9. LORIZ+3L10. SUPER RED DRAGON+3L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick VICTORY SCHOLARS (28.8%) finished 8th — the winner SEASONS BLISS was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 VICTORY SCHOLARS 28.8% 3.47 8
2 6 GOOD NEWS 14.2% 7.06 3
3 3 PARTY WARRIOR 13.8% 7.24 7
4 4 INFINITY WIN 10.2% 9.78 5
5 5 WHIZZ KID 8.4% 11.92 2
6 11 SEASONS BLISS 7.3% 13.78 1
7 7 DR WINNING 4.3% 23.15 6
8 12 TAKE WHAT YOU NEED 3.3% 30.40 12
9 10 LORIZ 2.9% 34.87 9
10 13 MILLENNIUM FALCON 2.1% 46.93 4
11 14 MOON PEAKS 1.8% 54.29 11
12 2 SUPER RED DRAGON 1.8% 55.00 10
13 9 JUDY'S STAR 0.8% 122.19 13
14 8 ISLAND SURPRISE 0.3% 385.19 14
VICTORY SCHOLARSGOOD NEWSPARTY WARRIORINFINITY WINWHIZZ KIDSEASONS BLISS — wonDR WINNINGTAKE WHAT YOU NEEDLORIZMILLENNIUM FALCONMOON PEAKSSUPER RED DRAGONJUDY'S STARISLAND SURPRISE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 91

PLACE

5 16

6 36

11 25.5

QUINELLA

5,11 218

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 83

5,11 83

6,11 147.5

FORECAST

11,5 517

TIERCE

11,5,6 3,685

TRIO

5,6,11 763

FIRST 4

5,6,11,13 1,305

QUARTET

11,5,6,13 27,032

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,8,12/5,6,11 62,830

3 PICK 1

A2 25.5

A1

A3

3RD DOUBLE

2/5 51

2/11 500.5