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Sha Tin · 2021-10-17

Race 8

Group 2 GOOD 1600m Course B+2 12 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-10-17 was Group 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. PANFIELD, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A T Millard, won by N, with PRECIOUSSHIP second and TOURBILLON DIAMOND third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite SKY DARCI finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.34.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 PANFIELD Closed strongly TT 1.34.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A T Millard 2 7.2 N
2 12 PRECIOUSSHIP Closed strongly V Borges · P F Yiu 12 19.0 N
3 10 TOURBILLON DIAMOND Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · C S Shum 4 4.4 3/4
4 6 COLUMBUS COUNTY Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 10 20.0 3/4
5 2 KA YING STAR Led early V/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 3 15.0 1
6 11 RUSSIAN EMPEROR Closed strongly SR-/XB-/B M L Yeung · D J Whyte 6 30.0 1-1/4
7 9 BUTTERFIELD Closed strongly TT M F Poon · C S Shum 7 45.0 1-1/4
8 7 SKY DARCI Closed strongly TT J Moreira · C Fownes 11 2.7 1-3/4
9 3 WAIKUKU Z Purton · J Size 5 9.9 2
10 4 GLORIOUS DRAGON Closed strongly TT C Schofield · K W Lui 8 19.0 2
11 1 SOUTHERN LEGEND TT B Shinn · C Fownes 9 33.0 2-1/2
12 8 CHAMPION'S WAY P/TT A Hamelin · J Size 1 12.0 2-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PANFIELD2. PRECIOUSSHIP+0.05L3. TOURBILLON DIAMOND+0.75L4. COLUMBUS COUNTY+0.75L5. KA YING STAR+1L6. RUSSIAN EMPEROR+1.25L7. BUTTERFIELD+1.25L8. SKY DARCI+1.75L9. WAIKUKU+2L10. GLORIOUS DRAGON+2L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SKY DARCI (28.8%) finished 8th — the winner PANFIELD was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 SKY DARCI 28.8% 3.47 8
2 5 PANFIELD 16.9% 5.93 1
3 10 TOURBILLON DIAMOND 11.8% 8.51 3
4 3 WAIKUKU 9.7% 10.26 9
5 1 SOUTHERN LEGEND 6.6% 15.19 11
6 6 COLUMBUS COUNTY 5.7% 17.47 4
7 8 CHAMPION'S WAY 4.6% 21.63 12
8 4 GLORIOUS DRAGON 3.7% 26.73 10
9 12 PRECIOUSSHIP 3.6% 27.94 2
10 9 BUTTERFIELD 3.5% 28.31 7
11 2 KA YING STAR 2.7% 36.69 5
12 11 RUSSIAN EMPEROR 2.3% 43.75 6
SKY DARCIPANFIELD — wonTOURBILLON DIAMONDWAIKUKUSOUTHERN LEGENDCOLUMBUS COUNTYCHAMPION'S WAYGLORIOUS DRAGONPRECIOUSSHIPBUTTERFIELDKA YING STARRUSSIAN EMPEROR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 72

PLACE

5 20.5

10 17.5

12 51.5

QUINELLA

5,12 538

QUINELLA PLACE

5,10 67

5,12 177.5

10,12 161.5

FORECAST

5,12 1,133

TIERCE

5,12,10 5,528

TRIO

5,10,12 1,081

FIRST 4

5,6,10,12 2,789

QUARTET

5,12,10,6 61,381

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 26.5

7TH DOUBLE

10/5 878.5

10/12 407.5

WINNING TRAINER

B4 29.5

B1

B2

B3