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Sha Tin · 2021-10-27

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-10-27 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. THE ELITES, ridden by V Borges and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with RUN RUN GOOD second and GENERAL TRUMP third. The 4.6 favourite AMAZING KNIGHT finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.09.91
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 THE ELITES TT 1.09.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · F C Lor 7 10.0 SH
2 7 RUN RUN GOOD B L Ferraris · K L Man 4 21.0 SH
3 6 GENERAL TRUMP B/TT K Teetan · T P Yung 10 5.0 4
4 2 AMAZING KNIGHT P Z Purton · C H Yip 11 4.6 4-1/4
5 3 FOREVER CITY TT K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 8 11.0 4-1/2
6 4 QIPAO BOSS A Badel · D J Hall 6 7.6 4-3/4
7 5 HOLYSHOWCASING B B Shinn · D E Ferraris 3 8.7 8
8 9 SMILING FACE B C L Chau · D J Whyte 2 35.0 8-1/4
9 10 ONE STEP AHEAD B2 H T Mo · C W Chang 12 13.0 9-1/2
10 1 DRAGON KINGDOM B1 M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 9 6.1 10
11 8 ALL THE WAY H-/CP1/TT M F Poon · L Ho 5 47.0 15-1/2
12 12 TIGERLAD B/TT C Wong · R Gibson 1 31.0 17-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THE ELITES2. RUN RUN GOOD+0.1L3. GENERAL TRUMP+4L4. AMAZING KNIGHT+4.25L5. FOREVER CITY+4.5L6. QIPAO BOSS+4.75L7. HOLYSHOWCASING+8L8. SMILING FACE+8.25L9. ONE STEP AHEAD+9.5L10. DRAGON KINGDOM+10L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick AMAZING KNIGHT (18.7%) finished 4th — the winner THE ELITES was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 AMAZING KNIGHT 18.7% 5.35 4
2 10 ONE STEP AHEAD 16.8% 5.97 9
3 6 GENERAL TRUMP 12.2% 8.19 3
4 4 QIPAO BOSS 12.0% 8.34 6
5 11 THE ELITES 7.5% 13.35 1
6 7 RUN RUN GOOD 6.9% 14.54 2
7 3 FOREVER CITY 6.3% 15.75 5
8 5 HOLYSHOWCASING 5.9% 17.04 7
9 9 SMILING FACE 4.9% 20.37 8
10 8 ALL THE WAY 3.1% 32.74 11
11 12 TIGERLAD 2.9% 34.00 12
12 1 DRAGON KINGDOM 2.8% 35.19 10
AMAZING KNIGHTONE STEP AHEADGENERAL TRUMPQIPAO BOSSTHE ELITES — wonRUN RUN GOODFOREVER CITYHOLYSHOWCASINGSMILING FACEALL THE WAYTIGERLADDRAGON KINGDOM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 103

PLACE

6 19

7 55

11 32

QUINELLA

7,11 1,185.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 180

6,11 71.5

7,11 317

FORECAST

11,7 1,580

TIERCE

11,7,6 10,383

TRIO

6,7,11 1,532

FIRST 4

2,6,7,11 1,119

QUARTET

11,7,6,2 32,904

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 21.5

A1

A2