Sha Tin · 2021-10-27
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-10-27 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. GUNNISON, ridden by K C Leung and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 1/2, with SUNSET WATCH second and BRILLIANT FORTUNE third. The 5.5 favourite CALIFORNIA CONCORD finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | GUNNISON 1.09.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 11 | 10.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | SUNSET WATCH P-/PC1 A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 9 | 15.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | BRILLIANT FORTUNE B-/H/P1 B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 7 | 6.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 11 | SUPER WIN DRAGON TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 12 | 5.9 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | CALIFORNIA CONCORD B/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 10 | 5.5 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 8 | ELON E/P V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 4 | 10.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | SPEEDY MOUSE M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 2 | 8.7 | 5 |
| 8 | 9 | MEGA HEART XB/TT R Maia · C W Chang | R Maia | C W Chang | 6 | 11.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 12 | GOOD HEALTH M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 3 | 79.0 | 9 |
| 10 | 6 | NORTHERN DRAGON H C Schofield · D J Hall | C Schofield | D J Hall | 5 | 12.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 11 | 7 | WAR OF COURAGE B K Teetan · K L Man | K Teetan | K L Man | 1 | 6.4 | 12-3/4 |
| — | 10 | ASTROLOGER C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | WAR OF COURAGE | 16.4% | 6.10 | 11 |
| 2 | 1 | CALIFORNIA CONCORD | 15.8% | 6.33 | 5 |
| 3 | 2 | SPEEDY MOUSE | 13.6% | 7.36 | 7 |
| 4 | 5 | BRILLIANT FORTUNE | 11.2% | 8.93 | 3 |
| 5 | 9 | MEGA HEART | 9.4% | 10.60 | 8 |
| 6 | 11 | SUPER WIN DRAGON | 7.6% | 13.12 | 4 |
| 7 | 8 | ELON | 7.6% | 13.13 | 6 |
| 8 | 4 | SUNSET WATCH | 6.5% | 15.27 | 2 |
| 9 | 6 | NORTHERN DRAGON | 5.9% | 16.90 | 10 |
| 10 | 3 | GUNNISON | 4.6% | 21.84 | 1 |
| 11 | 12 | GOOD HEALTH | 1.3% | 76.03 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 109
PLACE
3 30
4 43
5 22.5
QUINELLA
3,4 668.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 184.5
3,5 107
4,5 167.5
FORECAST
3,4 1,189
TIERCE
3,4,5 9,868
TRIO
3,4,5 1,345
FIRST 4
3,4,5,11 2,116
QUARTET
3,4,5,11 60,245
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 19
A2 —
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,7,8/3,4,5 296,268
7TH DOUBLE
3/3 825
3/4 141
SIX UP
4,12/1,7/3,7/11,12/3,7/3,4 286,240
4 [K C Leung] —
TREBLE
11/3/3 9,025
11/3/4 1,713