Sha Tin · 2021-10-27

Race 2

Class 2 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 8 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-10-27 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. KINGS SHIELD, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by 2-1/2, with THE ROCK second and TELECOM FIGHTERS third. The winner led throughout. The 2.2 favourite HONGKONG GREAT finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.38.63

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	3	KINGS SHIELD Wire to wire CP 1.38.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	3	131 lb	10.0	2-1/2
2	5	THE ROCK Closed strongly P2 C Y Ho · C Fownes	C Y Ho	C Fownes	6	127 lb	4.3	2-1/2
3	7	TELECOM FIGHTERS M Chadwick · Y S Tsui	M Chadwick	Y S Tsui	7	125 lb	8.1	5-1/2
4	4	NOT USUAL TALENT Closed strongly TT M F Poon · T P Yung	M F Poon	T P Yung	1	129 lb	12.0	8-1/4
5	6	RED DESERT A Hamelin · J Size	A Hamelin	J Size	8	126 lb	32.0	8-1/4
6	8	HELENE WISDOM STAR H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	5	113 lb	6.5	14
7	2	WISHFUL THINKER Closed strongly CP- C L Chau · C H Yip	C L Chau	C H Yip	2	129 lb	20.0	19-1/4
8	1	HONGKONG GREAT B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum	Z Purton	C S Shum	4	133 lb	2.2	ML

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick HONGKONG GREAT (41.2%) finished 8th — the winner KINGS SHIELD was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	HONGKONG GREAT	41.2%	2.43	8	2.2
2	7	TELECOM FIGHTERS	18.4%	5.43	3	8.1
3	5	THE ROCK	13.6%	7.35	2	4.3
4	4	NOT USUAL TALENT	7.0%	14.32	4	12.0
5	8	HELENE WISDOM STAR	6.7%	14.96	6	6.5
6	2	WISHFUL THINKER	4.8%	20.70	7	20.0
7	3	KINGS SHIELD	4.6%	21.69	1	10.0
8	6	RED DESERT	3.7%	26.84	5	32.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 108

PLACE

3 28

5 13.5

7 20.5

QUINELLA

3,5 210

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 67

3,7 90.5

5,7 42

FORECAST

3,5 549

TIERCE

3,5,7 2,045

TRIO

3,5,7 407

FIRST 4

3,4,5,7 668

QUARTET

3,5,7,4 15,124

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

11/3 577

11/5 97.5

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 22.5

A3 —

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