Sha Tin · 2021-10-27
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-10-27 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. LUCKY VICTOR, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by K H Ting, won by 1-3/4, with TURF BRILLIANT second and CROWN AVENUE third. The winner led throughout. The 4.3 favourite FIGURES TWO finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | LUCKY VICTOR Wire to wire B/TT 1.50.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 13 | 11.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 4 | TURF BRILLIANT Closed strongly B Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 14 | 6.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 1 | CROWN AVENUE Closed strongly V K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 12 | 6.7 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 2 | EL VALIENTE Closed strongly B/TT1 B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 5 | 6.2 | 2 |
| 5 | 14 | SPEED FORCE Closed strongly B M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 9 | 60.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 7 | FIGURES TWO L Ferraris · A T Millard | L Ferraris | A T Millard | 6 | 4.3 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | HAPPY JAI JAI Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 11 | 9.4 | 8-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | STRATHMARTINE B-/CP1/TT K C Leung · A T Millard | K C Leung | A T Millard | 4 | 35.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | MISTER ARM H2 C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 7 | 34.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | AMAZING LUCK B V Borges · P O'Sullivan | V Borges | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 19.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 11 | 13 | SHANGHAI GRACE B H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 10 | 16.0 | 12-1/2 |
| 12 | 6 | RUBY STARS TT C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 1 | 17.0 | 21 |
| 13 | 5 | MISTER MONTE CP H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 2 | 19.0 | 51-1/4 |
| — | 11 | ANONYMA H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 8 | 38.0 | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | TURF BRILLIANT | 23.4% | 4.28 | 2 |
| 2 | 12 | LUCKY VICTOR | 11.8% | 8.51 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | FIGURES TWO | 11.4% | 8.79 | 6 |
| 4 | 10 | HAPPY JAI JAI | 8.5% | 11.81 | 7 |
| 5 | 6 | RUBY STARS | 7.6% | 13.10 | 12 |
| 6 | 1 | CROWN AVENUE | 7.3% | 13.75 | 3 |
| 7 | 5 | MISTER MONTE | 6.5% | 15.35 | 13 |
| 8 | 2 | EL VALIENTE | 6.2% | 16.16 | 4 |
| 9 | 3 | MISTER ARM | 4.7% | 21.12 | 9 |
| 10 | 9 | AMAZING LUCK | 3.6% | 27.63 | 10 |
| 11 | 13 | SHANGHAI GRACE | 3.3% | 30.56 | 11 |
| 12 | 14 | SPEED FORCE | 3.2% | 31.46 | 5 |
| 13 | 8 | STRATHMARTINE | 2.6% | 38.19 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 115.5
PLACE
1 22.5
4 23.5
12 38
QUINELLA
4,12 428
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 72
1,12 115
4,12 132.5
FORECAST
12,4 894
TIERCE
12,4,1 3,780
TRIO
1,4,12 490
FIRST 4
1,2,4,12 553
QUARTET
12,4,1,2 15,277
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
3/4 133
3/12 1,304.5
3 PICK 1
A3 22
A1 —
A2 —