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Sha Tin · 2021-10-27

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1800m 13 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-10-27 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. PARTY EVERYDAY, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/4, with VICTORIOUS SEEKER second and DOUBLE TAKE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.9 favourite SUPER FAST finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.49.65
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 PARTY EVERYDAY Closed strongly H/TT 1.49.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · A S Cruz 11 11.0 1-1/4
2 7 VICTORIOUS SEEKER Closed strongly B C Schofield · P O'Sullivan 9 36.0 1-1/4
3 1 DOUBLE TAKE Closed strongly B K H Chan · C Fownes 5 16.0 3-3/4
4 2 SUPER FAST Closed strongly XB/CP2 Z Purton · K W Lui 1 1.9 4-1/2
5 4 UNITE SPIRIT B/XB B Shinn · D E Ferraris 6 25.0 5
6 5 FLASH FAMOUS Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · C H Yip 3 55.0 6
7 12 LONDON LUCKYSTAR Led early PC K Teetan · L Ho 8 6.6 8
8 6 SMART FOLKS A Hamelin · C W Chang 4 20.0 9
9 10 SURE WIN WIN Closed strongly V C Y Ho · T P Yung 13 18.0 9-1/4
10 9 DIONYSUS COLLIN Closed strongly P H N Wong · K H Ting 10 25.0 10-1/4
11 13 OH BRAVO TT A Badel · W Y So 7 9.5 12
12 11 YES WE CAN TT K C Leung · T P Yung 12 24.0 13-1/2
13 8 TELECOM CHEETAH B/TT L Ferraris · C H Yip 2 43.0 15-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PARTY EVERYDAY2. VICTORIOUS SEEKER+1.25L3. DOUBLE TAKE+3.75L4. SUPER FAST+4.5L5. UNITE SPIRIT+5L6. FLASH FAMOUS+6L7. LONDON LUCKYSTAR+8L8. SMART FOLKS+9L9. SURE WIN WIN+9.25L10. DIONYSUS COLLIN+10.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SUPER FAST (48.9%) finished 4th — the winner PARTY EVERYDAY was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 SUPER FAST 48.9% 2.04 4
2 1 DOUBLE TAKE 7.0% 14.27 3
3 5 FLASH FAMOUS 6.2% 16.18 6
4 13 OH BRAVO 5.4% 18.37 11
5 11 YES WE CAN 5.3% 18.74 12
6 3 PARTY EVERYDAY 5.0% 19.86 1
7 10 SURE WIN WIN 4.7% 21.06 9
8 12 LONDON LUCKYSTAR 4.3% 23.23 7
9 7 VICTORIOUS SEEKER 3.3% 30.27 2
10 4 UNITE SPIRIT 2.7% 36.47 5
11 6 SMART FOLKS 2.6% 37.87 8
12 8 TELECOM CHEETAH 2.5% 40.51 13
13 9 DIONYSUS COLLIN 1.8% 54.25 10
SUPER FASTDOUBLE TAKEFLASH FAMOUSOH BRAVOYES WE CANPARTY EVERYDAY — wonSURE WIN WINLONDON LUCKYSTARVICTORIOUS SEEKERUNITE SPIRITSMART FOLKSTELECOM CHEETAHDIONYSUS COLLIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 111

PLACE

1 40.5

3 29

7 99.5

QUINELLA

3,7 2,261.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 165

1,7 739

3,7 566.5

FORECAST

3,7 3,618

TIERCE

3,7,1 41,380

TRIO

1,3,7 3,799

FIRST 4

1,2,3,7 3,057

QUARTET

3,7,1,2 126,348

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 16.5

4TH DOUBLE

1/3 2,386.5

1/7 1,392.5