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Sha Tin · 2021-10-27

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 11 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-10-27 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. CHANCHENG PRINCE, ridden by R Maia and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/2, with TRUE LEGEND second and SKYEY SUPREME third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite GAMEPLAYER TIMES finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.38.83
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 CHANCHENG PRINCE Closed strongly XB/TT 1.38.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · K W Lui 5 6.1 1-1/2
2 7 TRUE LEGEND B M F Poon · F C Lor 2 4.7 1-1/2
3 8 SKYEY SUPREME Led early B/TT H N Wong · K W Lui 9 20.0 4
4 4 ELITE PATCH Closed strongly B/H/TT Z Purton · K W Lui 8 7.8 4
5 9 GAMEPLAYER TIMES SR/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 3 3.9 4-3/4
6 5 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly XB A Hamelin · C W Chang 7 27.0 6
7 10 GOLD COMET B C Schofield · K H Ting 1 7.1 7
8 2 THE HULK C Y Ho · C Fownes 10 39.0 7
9 11 SMART PATCH Closed strongly B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 11 19.0 10
10 1 BEAR SLAM B- L Ferraris · D E Ferraris 6 13.0 10-1/2
11 6 STAR PERFORMANCE B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 4 12.0 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHANCHENG PRINCE2. TRUE LEGEND+1.5L3. SKYEY SUPREME+4L4. ELITE PATCH+4L5. GAMEPLAYER TIMES+4.75L6. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE+6L7. GOLD COMET+7L8. THE HULK+7L9. SMART PATCH+10L10. BEAR SLAM+10.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick STAR PERFORMANCE (18.3%) finished 11th — the winner CHANCHENG PRINCE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 STAR PERFORMANCE 18.3% 5.47 11
2 7 TRUE LEGEND 16.5% 6.05 2
3 3 CHANCHENG PRINCE 15.1% 6.62 1
4 9 GAMEPLAYER TIMES 11.8% 8.46 5
5 10 GOLD COMET 8.4% 11.91 7
6 4 ELITE PATCH 6.8% 14.81 4
7 11 SMART PATCH 6.3% 15.80 9
8 1 BEAR SLAM 4.6% 21.58 10
9 5 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 4.6% 21.74 6
10 2 THE HULK 4.1% 24.61 8
11 8 SKYEY SUPREME 3.5% 28.69 3
STAR PERFORMANCETRUE LEGENDCHANCHENG PRINCE — wonGAMEPLAYER TIMESGOLD COMETELITE PATCHSMART PATCHBEAR SLAMRIGHTEOUS DOCTRINETHE HULKSKYEY SUPREME

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 61.5

PLACE

3 23.5

7 16.5

8 61

QUINELLA

3,7 117.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 48

3,8 209.5

7,8 141

FORECAST

3,7 369

TIERCE

3,7,8 2,619

TRIO

3,7,8 604

FIRST 4

3,4,7,8 1,270

QUARTET

3,7,8,4 23,267

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 26.5

6TH DOUBLE

11/3 588.5

11/7 98.5