Sha Tin · 2021-11-07
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-07 was Class 5 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. SUPER KIN, ridden by A Badel and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with DIAMOND STAR second and LIGHT MY DAY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.6 favourite BRAVE POWER finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | SUPER KIN Closed strongly TT 1.34.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 1 | 9.1 | N |
| 2 | 9 | DIAMOND STAR Closed strongly E/TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 6 | 9.8 | N |
| 3 | 7 | LIGHT MY DAY B/TT B Shinn · C H Yip | B Shinn | C H Yip | 9 | 7.2 | 1 |
| 4 | 12 | NOBLE MAN Closed strongly B-/H-/V1/TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 5 | 53.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | ALEE KING PRAWN B C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 8 | 19.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 11 | BRAVE POWER Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 3 | 4.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | SPARKLING STAR Closed strongly TT K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 2 | 6.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 8 | TELECOM ELITE Closed strongly H- H Bentley · Y S Tsui | H Bentley | Y S Tsui | 13 | 33.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 4 | REGENCY GEM Closed strongly TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 10 | 6.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 10 | 14 | BIG BANG BONG Closed strongly B V Borges · C W Chang | V Borges | C W Chang | 14 | 33.0 | 3 |
| 11 | 6 | WIN TECH TT K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 17.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 12 | 10 | INCREDIBLE Led early TT M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 4 | 57.0 | 4 |
| 13 | 2 | GALLANT CAVALIER B/TT C Y Ho · A T Millard | C Y Ho | A T Millard | 12 | 41.0 | 16-1/2 |
| 14 | 3 | HAPPY WIN WIN TT A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 7 | 9.3 | 21-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | DIAMOND STAR | 22.2% | 4.50 | 2 |
| 2 | 11 | BRAVE POWER | 13.4% | 7.48 | 5 |
| 3 | 4 | REGENCY GEM | 12.4% | 8.03 | 9 |
| 4 | 7 | LIGHT MY DAY | 11.0% | 9.08 | 3 |
| 5 | 13 | SUPER KIN | 9.5% | 10.52 | 1 |
| 6 | 5 | SPARKLING STAR | 8.3% | 12.11 | 7 |
| 7 | 6 | WIN TECH | 5.0% | 20.16 | 11 |
| 8 | 3 | HAPPY WIN WIN | 3.8% | 26.41 | 14 |
| 9 | 1 | ALEE KING PRAWN | 3.6% | 27.49 | 5 |
| 10 | 8 | TELECOM ELITE | 3.4% | 29.48 | 8 |
| 11 | 14 | BIG BANG BONG | 2.4% | 41.13 | 10 |
| 12 | 12 | NOBLE MAN | 2.1% | 48.40 | 4 |
| 13 | 10 | INCREDIBLE | 1.6% | 61.94 | 12 |
| 14 | 2 | GALLANT CAVALIER | 1.3% | 75.88 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
13 91
PLACE
7 25.5
9 30
13 28.5
QUINELLA
9,13 556.5
QUINELLA PLACE
7,9 134.5
7,13 139
9,13 172.5
FORECAST
13,9 1,088
TIERCE
13,9,7 7,499
TRIO
7,9,13 1,404
FIRST 4
7,9,12,13 10,756
QUARTET
13,9,7,12 260,393
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 20.5