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Sha Tin · 2021-11-07

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course C+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.34.28
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 DARCI JOY Closed strongly B 1.34.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · P F Yiu 3 7.0 N
2 0 OSCAR GLORY CP Z Purton · F C Lor 11 2.8 N
3 0 SHANGHAI DRAGON Led early B M F Poon · T P Yung 13 13.0 1
4 0 GO GO SIXTEEN Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · K W Lui 2 10.0 1-1/2
5 0 JIANGXI STAMINA Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · W Y So 4 8.7 1-3/4
6 0 HERCULES Closed strongly XB/TT K Teetan · C H Yip 8 70.0 2-1/2
7 0 DAILY CHARM B/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum 7 8.8 2-3/4
8 0 MAKE IT TURBO Closed strongly H Bentley · D J Hall 12 200.0 2-3/4
9 0 JOY MASTER V-/B1/TT H N Wong · D E Ferraris 1 48.0 4-3/4
10 0 BIG BROOK Closed strongly B B Shinn · C Fownes 5 40.0 5
11 0 LEADING FORTUNE J Moreira · J Size 9 5.8 8-1/2
12 0 UNIVERSAL HERO A Hamelin · Y S Tsui 6 90.0 11
13 0 SUNNY BABY M L Yeung · D A Hayes 10 16.0 11-1/4
14 0 FOREVER TT C Wong · C H Yip 14 222.0 27-3/4
— 0 STUNNING IMPACT K Teetan · P O'Sullivan — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-07 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. DARCI JOY, ridden by K C Leung and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with OSCAR GLORY second and SHANGHAI DRAGON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite OSCAR GLORY finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DARCI JOY—2. OSCAR GLORY+0.05L3. SHANGHAI DRAGON+1L4. GO GO SIXTEEN+1.5L5. JIANGXI STAMINA+1.75L6. HERCULES+2.5L7. DAILY CHARM+2.75L8. MAKE IT TURBO+2.75L9. JOY MASTER+4.75L10. BIG BROOK+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick OSCAR GLORY (22.3%) finished 2nd — the winner DARCI JOY was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 OSCAR GLORY 22.3% 4.48 2
2 0 DAILY CHARM 14.9% 6.71 7
3 0 LEADING FORTUNE 11.6% 8.63 11
4 0 JIANGXI STAMINA 11.2% 8.96 5
5 0 GO GO SIXTEEN 8.1% 12.29 4
6 0 SUNNY BABY 7.5% 13.39 13
7 0 DARCI JOY 6.9% 14.40 1
8 0 SHANGHAI DRAGON 5.6% 17.87 3
9 0 BIG BROOK 3.6% 27.49 10
10 0 HERCULES 2.3% 43.19 6
11 0 JOY MASTER 2.1% 46.54 9
12 0 UNIVERSAL HERO 2.0% 50.83 12
13 0 MAKE IT TURBO 1.0% 100.27 8
14 0 FOREVER 0.8% 121.84 14
OSCAR GLORYDAILY CHARMLEADING FORTUNEJIANGXI STAMINAGO GO SIXTEENSUNNY BABYDARCI JOY — wonSHANGHAI DRAGONBIG BROOKHERCULESJOY MASTERUNIVERSAL HEROMAKE IT TURBOFOREVER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 70

PLACE

1 14.5

5 38.5

8 20

QUINELLA

1,8 103

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 71

1,8 44.5

5,8 139.5

FORECAST

8,1 316

TIERCE

8,1,5 2,802

TRIO

1,5,8 460

FIRST 4

1,5,8,10 867

QUARTET

8,1,5,10 20,850

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

4/1 19

4/8 340

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 16.5

A3 —