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Sha Tin · 2021-11-07

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-07 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. DARCI JOY, ridden by K C Leung and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with OSCAR GLORY second and SHANGHAI DRAGON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite OSCAR GLORY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.34.28
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 DARCI JOY Closed strongly B 1.34.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · P F Yiu 3 7.0 N
2 1 OSCAR GLORY CP Z Purton · F C Lor 11 2.8 N
3 5 SHANGHAI DRAGON Led early B M F Poon · T P Yung 13 13.0 1
4 10 GO GO SIXTEEN Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · K W Lui 2 10.0 1-1/2
5 7 JIANGXI STAMINA Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · W Y So 4 8.7 1-3/4
6 12 HERCULES Closed strongly XB/TT K Teetan · C H Yip 8 70.0 2-1/2
7 13 DAILY CHARM B/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum 7 8.8 2-3/4
8 4 MAKE IT TURBO Closed strongly H Bentley · D J Hall 12 200.0 2-3/4
9 11 JOY MASTER V-/B1/TT H N Wong · D E Ferraris 1 48.0 4-3/4
10 2 BIG BROOK Closed strongly B B Shinn · C Fownes 5 40.0 5
11 3 LEADING FORTUNE J Moreira · J Size 9 5.8 8-1/2
12 6 UNIVERSAL HERO A Hamelin · Y S Tsui 6 90.0 11
13 14 SUNNY BABY M L Yeung · D A Hayes 10 16.0 11-1/4
14 9 FOREVER TT C Wong · C H Yip 14 222.0 27-3/4
0 STUNNING IMPACT K Teetan · P O'Sullivan

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DARCI JOY2. OSCAR GLORY+0.05L3. SHANGHAI DRAGON+1L4. GO GO SIXTEEN+1.5L5. JIANGXI STAMINA+1.75L6. HERCULES+2.5L7. DAILY CHARM+2.75L8. MAKE IT TURBO+2.75L9. JOY MASTER+4.75L10. BIG BROOK+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick OSCAR GLORY (22.3%) finished 2nd — the winner DARCI JOY was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 OSCAR GLORY 22.3% 4.48 2
2 13 DAILY CHARM 14.9% 6.71 7
3 3 LEADING FORTUNE 11.6% 8.63 11
4 7 JIANGXI STAMINA 11.2% 8.96 5
5 10 GO GO SIXTEEN 8.1% 12.29 4
6 14 SUNNY BABY 7.5% 13.39 13
7 8 DARCI JOY 6.9% 14.40 1
8 5 SHANGHAI DRAGON 5.6% 17.87 3
9 2 BIG BROOK 3.6% 27.49 10
10 12 HERCULES 2.3% 43.19 6
11 11 JOY MASTER 2.1% 46.54 9
12 6 UNIVERSAL HERO 2.0% 50.83 12
13 4 MAKE IT TURBO 1.0% 100.27 8
14 9 FOREVER 0.8% 121.84 14
OSCAR GLORYDAILY CHARMLEADING FORTUNEJIANGXI STAMINAGO GO SIXTEENSUNNY BABYDARCI JOY — wonSHANGHAI DRAGONBIG BROOKHERCULESJOY MASTERUNIVERSAL HEROMAKE IT TURBOFOREVER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 70

PLACE

1 14.5

5 38.5

8 20

QUINELLA

1,8 103

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 71

1,8 44.5

5,8 139.5

FORECAST

8,1 316

TIERCE

8,1,5 2,802

TRIO

1,5,8 460

FIRST 4

1,5,8,10 867

QUARTET

8,1,5,10 20,850

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

4/1 19

4/8 340

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 16.5

A3