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Sha Tin · 2021-11-07

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-07 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. INFINITE POWER, ridden by M F Poon and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with MEGA BONUS second and NOBLE STEED third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 3.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.72
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 INFINITE POWER Wire to wire CP 1.21.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · F C Lor 12 3.8 1/2
2 14 MEGA BONUS Closed strongly XB J Moreira · P F Yiu 4 6.5 1/2
3 5 NOBLE STEED Closed strongly B R Maia · K W Lui 3 23.0 1-3/4
4 10 LADY FIRST Closed strongly CP/H/XB/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 2 24.0 2-1/4
5 8 DR WINNING Closed strongly TT A Badel · J Size 10 7.1 2-3/4
6 11 ROMANTIC TROVE TT K C Leung · W Y So 11 28.0 4-1/2
7 2 VICTORY SCHOLARS CP-/B1 Z Purton · D J Hall 7 4.5 4-1/2
8 7 CIRCUIT SPIRITANTO Closed strongly C Schofield · K L Man 6 80.0 6-1/4
9 1 TRONIC MIGHTY XB M L Yeung · D A Hayes 14 115.0 6-1/2
10 13 EL JEFE Closed strongly XB A Hamelin · C H Yip 5 14.0 6-3/4
11 9 SPARTAN MISSILE B Shinn · D E Ferraris 8 25.0 7
12 6 VUKAN XB K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 9 8.4 7
13 12 TAKE WHAT YOU NEED V-/B2 C L Chau · D J Whyte 13 44.0 8
14 3 FANTASTIC SHOW B H Bentley · Y S Tsui 1 23.0 9
0 LAND POWER K H Chan · C Fownes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. INFINITE POWER2. MEGA BONUS+0.5L3. NOBLE STEED+1.75L4. LADY FIRST+2.25L5. DR WINNING+2.75L6. ROMANTIC TROVE+4.5L7. VICTORY SCHOLARS+4.5L8. CIRCUIT SPIRITANTO+6.25L9. TRONIC MIGHTY+6.5L10. EL JEFE+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick VICTORY SCHOLARS (23.1%) finished 7th — the winner INFINITE POWER was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 VICTORY SCHOLARS 23.1% 4.32 7
2 14 MEGA BONUS 15.6% 6.41 2
3 6 VUKAN 8.9% 11.24 12
4 8 DR WINNING 8.6% 11.65 5
5 4 INFINITE POWER 7.7% 12.93 1
6 11 ROMANTIC TROVE 7.7% 12.98 6
7 10 LADY FIRST 7.7% 12.98 4
8 13 EL JEFE 5.5% 18.21 10
9 7 CIRCUIT SPIRITANTO 3.6% 27.55 8
10 5 NOBLE STEED 3.4% 29.00 3
11 12 TAKE WHAT YOU NEED 3.4% 29.06 13
12 9 SPARTAN MISSILE 1.6% 61.57 11
13 1 TRONIC MIGHTY 1.5% 66.28 9
14 3 FANTASTIC SHOW 1.5% 66.61 14
VICTORY SCHOLARSMEGA BONUSVUKANDR WINNINGINFINITE POWER — wonROMANTIC TROVELADY FIRSTEL JEFECIRCUIT SPIRITANTONOBLE STEEDTAKE WHAT YOU NEEDSPARTAN MISSILETRONIC MIGHTYFANTASTIC SHOW

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 38

PLACE

4 16

5 57

14 22

QUINELLA

4,14 176

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 162

4,14 69.5

5,14 259.5

FORECAST

4,14 267

TIERCE

4,14,5 4,627

TRIO

4,5,14 1,327

FIRST 4

4,5,10,14 4,621

QUARTET

4,14,5,10 49,995

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

13/4 637.5

13/14 123.5

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 22

A1