Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2021-11-07

Race 6

Class 2 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 10 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-07 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. TRILLION WIN, ridden by A Badel and trained by K L Man, won by DH, with FANTASTIC WAY second and LUCKY MORE third. The 2.6 favourite FANTASTIC WAY finished 1st.

Result

Official · 1.08.58
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 TRILLION WIN CP 1.08.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · K L Man 1 3.1 DH
1 7 FANTASTIC WAY 1.08.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 10 2.6 DH
3 5 LUCKY MORE CP/XB Z Purton · C S Shum 5 6.8 NOSE
4 10 CZARSON CP/TT V Borges · P F Yiu 3 30.0 SH
5 4 CALIFORNIA RAD B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 9 7.1 1/2
6 3 HINCHINLOVE B/TT H T Mo · T P Yung 2 15.0 2-1/2
7 1 WISHFUL THINKER CP2 K C Leung · C H Yip 4 16.0 3-1/2
8 8 MAN STAR V M L Yeung · K H Ting 6 36.0 4-1/2
9 6 PING HAI BRAVO TT A Hamelin · J Size 8 55.0 4-1/2
10 9 AMAZING CHOCOLATE B C Wong · T P Yung 7 81.0 6-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TRILLION WIN1. FANTASTIC WAY3. LUCKY MORE+0.05L4. CZARSON+0.1L5. CALIFORNIA RAD+0.5L6. HINCHINLOVE+2.5L7. WISHFUL THINKER+3.5L8. MAN STAR+4.5L9. PING HAI BRAVO+4.5L10. AMAZING CHOCOLATE+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick FANTASTIC WAY (26.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 FANTASTIC WAY 26.1% 3.83 1
2 2 TRILLION WIN 23.7% 4.22 1
3 5 LUCKY MORE 14.8% 6.77 3
4 4 CALIFORNIA RAD 10.5% 9.53 5
5 8 MAN STAR 6.6% 15.06 8
6 9 AMAZING CHOCOLATE 5.0% 20.01 10
7 3 HINCHINLOVE 4.3% 23.35 6
8 10 CZARSON 4.2% 23.97 4
9 1 WISHFUL THINKER 2.7% 36.45 7
10 6 PING HAI BRAVO 2.1% 47.33 9
FANTASTIC WAY — wonTRILLION WIN — wonLUCKY MORECALIFORNIA RADMAN STARAMAZING CHOCOLATEHINCHINLOVECZARSONWISHFUL THINKERPING HAI BRAVO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 15.5

7 13

PLACE

2 12

5 20.5

7 12.5

QUINELLA

2,7 40

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 33.5

2,7 19

5,7 37.5

FORECAST

2,7 46

7,2 32

TIERCE

2,7,5 145

7,2,5 110

TRIO

2,5,7 59

FIRST 4

2,5,7,10 343

QUARTET

2,7,5,10 2,377

7,2,5,10 1,436

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 10.1

A1 10.1

5TH DOUBLE

14/2 1,103

14/7 764.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,5,10/Any Combination/Any Combination 1,095