Happy Valley · 2021-12-08 · 18:31
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | MISTER ARM Closed strongly 1.40.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 10 | 4.3 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 0 | ALL YOU KNOW Closed strongly B/H2/TT A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 5 | 5.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 0 | HAPPY JAI JAI Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 7 | 10.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | OH BRAVO Closed strongly TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 3 | 4.7 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | SUPER KIN Closed strongly TT J McDonald · C Fownes | J McDonald | C Fownes | 12 | 10.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | SUNNY BABY B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 11 | 6.4 | 5-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | PRIME STAR B/TT2 L Hewitson · A T Millard | L Hewitson | A T Millard | 1 | 52.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | LEGEND GOES B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 29.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 0 | ALL BEST FRIENDS Closed strongly B H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 8 | 24.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 0 | JOY MASTER Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · D E Ferraris | L Ferraris | D E Ferraris | 9 | 14.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 0 | SCHOLAR Led early H-/XB/V1/TT H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 4 | 95.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 12 | 0 | BLAZING BEAT B2 D Lane · C W Chang | D Lane | C W Chang | 6 | 19.0 | 11 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-12-08 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. MISTER ARM, ridden by J Moreira and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 2-1/4, with ALL YOU KNOW second and HAPPY JAI JAI third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.3 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | MISTER ARM | 25.8% | 3.88 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | OH BRAVO | 24.4% | 4.09 | 4 |
| 3 | 0 | SUPER KIN | 10.1% | 9.90 | 5 |
| 4 | 0 | SUNNY BABY | 8.7% | 11.52 | 6 |
| 5 | 0 | HAPPY JAI JAI | 8.2% | 12.22 | 3 |
| 6 | 0 | ALL YOU KNOW | 6.1% | 16.45 | 2 |
| 7 | 0 | ALL BEST FRIENDS | 4.8% | 20.70 | 9 |
| 8 | 0 | JOY MASTER | 4.1% | 24.58 | 10 |
| 9 | 0 | BLAZING BEAT | 2.7% | 37.00 | 12 |
| 10 | 0 | PRIME STAR | 2.0% | 48.90 | 7 |
| 11 | 0 | LEGEND GOES | 1.7% | 59.85 | 8 |
| 12 | 0 | SCHOLAR | 1.4% | 70.11 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 43.5
PLACE
4 17
8 18
12 31
QUINELLA
4,8 140
QUINELLA PLACE
4,8 51.5
4,12 98
8,12 69
FORECAST
8,4 238
TIERCE
8,4,12 1,670
TRIO
4,8,12 385
FIRST 4
4,7,8,12 303
QUARTET
8,4,12,7 6,865
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 23.5
A3 —
A2 —