Happy Valley · 2021-12-08 · 19:01
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2021-12-08 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. FEARLESS FIRE, ridden by B Shinn and trained by D A Hayes, won by 3/4, with ZONE D second and BULLETPROOF third. The winner led throughout. The 3.3 favourite ZONE D finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | FEARLESS FIRE Wire to wire XB 1.39.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 3 | 4.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 2 | ZONE D Closed strongly H/P/TT Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 11 | 3.3 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 8 | BULLETPROOF Closed strongly B M Barzalona · P F Yiu | M Barzalona | P F Yiu | 5 | 8.7 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | V CHEVALIERS Closed strongly H/B1/TT J Moreira · K L Man | J Moreira | K L Man | 9 | 7.6 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | SEAWEED FORTUNE Closed strongly V/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 10 | 14.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | MING WARRIOR Closed strongly SR1/TT L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 8 | 92.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 12 | STAY CHILL CP A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 2 | 10.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | ALL JOYFUL Closed strongly B M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 7 | 5.2 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | HAPPY LAND B/XB/TT R Maia · C S Shum | R Maia | C S Shum | 12 | 43.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | HEROIC CHAMPION K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 1 | 75.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | PASSING FASHION TT H N Wong · C H Yip | H N Wong | C H Yip | 4 | 129.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 12 | 5 | EMBARKED H/TT1 J McDonald · C Fownes | J McDonald | C Fownes | 6 | 63.0 | 14-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | ZONE D | 19.7% | 5.08 | 2 |
| 2 | 12 | STAY CHILL | 16.7% | 6.00 | 7 |
| 3 | 7 | ALL JOYFUL | 15.1% | 6.61 | 8 |
| 4 | 1 | SEAWEED FORTUNE | 12.2% | 8.21 | 5 |
| 5 | 4 | V CHEVALIERS | 11.9% | 8.41 | 4 |
| 6 | 8 | BULLETPROOF | 5.2% | 19.21 | 3 |
| 7 | 3 | FEARLESS FIRE | 4.4% | 22.89 | 1 |
| 8 | 6 | HAPPY LAND | 4.3% | 23.01 | 9 |
| 9 | 11 | HEROIC CHAMPION | 3.6% | 28.02 | 10 |
| 10 | 9 | MING WARRIOR | 3.3% | 29.98 | 6 |
| 11 | 5 | EMBARKED | 1.9% | 51.43 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | PASSING FASHION | 1.7% | 58.57 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 40.5
PLACE
2 16
3 14.5
8 30
QUINELLA
2,3 86
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 34.5
2,8 55.5
3,8 70.5
FORECAST
3,2 168
TIERCE
3,2,8 1,165
TRIO
2,3,8 231
FIRST 4
2,3,4,8 340
QUARTET
3,2,8,4 7,029
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
8/2 28.5
8/3 305
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 23
A3 —