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Happy Valley · 2021-12-08 · 21:16

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2021-12-08 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. FLYING ACE, ridden by M F Poon and trained by D J Hall, won by N, with XPONENTIAL second and SIGHT HERO third. The 4.7 favourite REGENCY STAR finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.09.80
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 FLYING ACE B1 1.09.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · D J Hall 10 8.8 N
2 2 XPONENTIAL B/TT J McDonald · D J Whyte 7 11.0 N
3 7 SIGHT HERO B Z Purton · D A Hayes 12 5.4 1/2
4 1 REWARDING TOGETHER B/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 4 23.0 1-1/2
5 8 SPARTAN MISSILE SR1 L Ferraris · D E Ferraris 9 38.0 3-1/2
6 5 REGENCY STAR A Badel · C S Shum 8 4.7 4
7 12 PRINCE OF BON BON H T Mo · Y S Tsui 3 126.0 4
8 11 CORDYCEPS ONE H C Y Ho · K W Lui 2 4.7 4-1/4
9 4 AURORA PEGASUS H/V/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 11 36.0 5-1/4
10 3 HAPPY GOOD GUYS TT1 D Lane · P F Yiu 5 16.0 8-1/4
11 10 BEAUTY CHEERS V Borges · J Size 1 5.8 9
12 9 HIN YUEN BIS TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 6 16.0 10-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FLYING ACE2. XPONENTIAL+0.05L3. SIGHT HERO+0.5L4. REWARDING TOGETHER+1.5L5. SPARTAN MISSILE+3.5L6. REGENCY STAR+4L7. PRINCE OF BON BON+4L8. CORDYCEPS ONE+4.25L9. AURORA PEGASUS+5.25L10. HAPPY GOOD GUYS+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SIGHT HERO (14.7%) finished 3rd — the winner FLYING ACE was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 SIGHT HERO 14.7% 6.80 3
2 5 REGENCY STAR 14.4% 6.95 6
3 1 REWARDING TOGETHER 13.0% 7.67 4
4 11 CORDYCEPS ONE 11.9% 8.37 8
5 10 BEAUTY CHEERS 10.8% 9.29 11
6 4 AURORA PEGASUS 8.8% 11.35 9
7 2 XPONENTIAL 7.5% 13.42 2
8 8 SPARTAN MISSILE 4.9% 20.45 5
9 9 HIN YUEN BIS 4.2% 23.97 12
10 6 FLYING ACE 3.8% 26.12 1
11 3 HAPPY GOOD GUYS 3.7% 27.34 10
12 12 PRINCE OF BON BON 2.3% 42.58 7
SIGHT HEROREGENCY STARREWARDING TOGETHERCORDYCEPS ONEBEAUTY CHEERSAURORA PEGASUSXPONENTIALSPARTAN MISSILEHIN YUEN BISFLYING ACE — wonHAPPY GOOD GUYSPRINCE OF BON BON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 88

PLACE

2 27.5

6 35.5

7 25

QUINELLA

2,6 573.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 191

2,7 87.5

6,7 132

FORECAST

6,2 1,108

TIERCE

6,2,7 6,069

TRIO

2,6,7 849

FIRST 4

1,2,6,7 2,756

QUARTET

6,2,7,1 69,430

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 22

5TH DOUBLE

5/2 364.5

5/6 2,988.5