Happy Valley · 2021-12-08 · 22:18
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2021-12-08 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. ELON, ridden by M Barzalona and trained by J Size, won by SH, with SHINING GEM second and HONG KONG BET third. The 3.4 favourite WINNING METHOD finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | ELON E/P 1.09.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Barzalona · J Size | M Barzalona | J Size | 10 | 13.0 | SH |
| 2 | 1 | SHINING GEM CP-/B1 Z Purton · P F Yiu | Z Purton | P F Yiu | 1 | 4.7 | SH |
| 3 | 6 | HONG KONG BET B/TT R Moore · W Y So | R Moore | W Y So | 3 | 7.2 | N |
| 4 | 10 | WOOD ON FIRE H/V/TT C Y Ho · L Ho | C Y Ho | L Ho | 6 | 19.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 2 | WINNING METHOD TT H Doyle · C S Shum | H Doyle | C S Shum | 2 | 3.4 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | ASTROLOGER Y Kawada · D J Whyte | Y Kawada | D J Whyte | 7 | 16.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 12 | LIKE THAT V L Hewitson · F C Lor | L Hewitson | F C Lor | 11 | 32.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 3 | CLASSIC POSH J Moreira · D J Hall | J Moreira | D J Hall | 5 | 26.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 5 | GINSON TT J McDonald · D A Hayes | J McDonald | D A Hayes | 4 | 22.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 4 | RESOLUTE B A Badel · A T Millard | A Badel | A T Millard | 8 | 44.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 8 | SEVEN HEAVENS B/TT T Marquand · C Fownes | T Marquand | C Fownes | 12 | 20.0 | 8-1/2 |
| — | 7 | CALIFORNIA CIBLE TT D Lane · A S Cruz | D Lane | A S Cruz | 9 | 4.9 | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SHINING GEM | 18.7% | 5.35 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | CLASSIC POSH | 15.2% | 6.56 | 8 |
| 3 | 2 | WINNING METHOD | 11.3% | 8.83 | 5 |
| 4 | 10 | WOOD ON FIRE | 9.5% | 10.48 | 4 |
| 5 | 6 | HONG KONG BET | 9.4% | 10.64 | 3 |
| 6 | 4 | RESOLUTE | 7.8% | 12.76 | 10 |
| 7 | 5 | GINSON | 7.6% | 13.14 | 9 |
| 8 | 11 | ELON | 6.7% | 15.00 | 1 |
| 9 | 8 | SEVEN HEAVENS | 5.2% | 19.08 | 11 |
| 10 | 9 | ASTROLOGER | 4.6% | 21.52 | 6 |
| 11 | 12 | LIKE THAT | 3.8% | 26.44 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 137
PLACE
1 16.5
6 29
11 44.5
QUINELLA
1,11 428.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 80.5
1,11 142.5
6,11 260
FORECAST
11,1 1,287
TIERCE
11,1,6 8,705
TRIO
1,6,11 1,557
FIRST 4
1,6,10,11 4,164
QUARTET
11,1,6,10 125,422
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 32.5
7TH DOUBLE
7/1 85
7/11 1,950.5
1 [Z Purton] —