Happy Valley · 2021-12-08 · 19:33
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2021-12-08 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. TOUCH FAITH, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/2, with ONE STEP AHEAD second and ALLOY KING third. The 3.4 favourite SUNNY AND GOLD finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | TOUCH FAITH 1.10.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 10 | 8.7 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 11 | ONE STEP AHEAD B M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 4 | 14.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | ALLOY KING CP A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 9 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 2 | SUNNY AND GOLD H/TT Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 3 | 3.4 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | VIVA MAMA CP1/TT R Moore · R Gibson | R Moore | R Gibson | 2 | 3.8 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 7 | SPARKLING STAR B1/TT K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 6 | 4.9 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | SURE WINNER B L Hewitson · K L Man | L Hewitson | K L Man | 7 | 120.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 6 | MUDITA B B Shinn · P O'Sullivan | B Shinn | P O'Sullivan | 1 | 22.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 10 | VECTOR B/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 11 | 23.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 9 | E HONEY H1/XB2 L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 12 | 44.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 5 | ISLAND SUNSHINE V Borges · K W Lui | V Borges | K W Lui | 8 | 57.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | SUNNY SMILE TT A Badel · D E Ferraris | A Badel | D E Ferraris | 5 | 24.0 | 16-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | VIVA MAMA | 17.9% | 5.59 | 5 |
| 2 | 2 | SUNNY AND GOLD | 17.4% | 5.74 | 4 |
| 3 | 1 | TOUCH FAITH | 13.4% | 7.44 | 1 |
| 4 | 3 | ALLOY KING | 10.0% | 9.98 | 3 |
| 5 | 7 | SPARKLING STAR | 8.8% | 11.42 | 6 |
| 6 | 11 | ONE STEP AHEAD | 8.6% | 11.61 | 2 |
| 7 | 10 | VECTOR | 7.4% | 13.43 | 9 |
| 8 | 12 | SUNNY SMILE | 5.6% | 17.96 | 12 |
| 9 | 6 | MUDITA | 4.7% | 21.37 | 8 |
| 10 | 5 | ISLAND SUNSHINE | 3.2% | 31.74 | 11 |
| 11 | 9 | E HONEY | 2.5% | 39.51 | 10 |
| 12 | 4 | SURE WINNER | 0.5% | 203.96 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 87.5
PLACE
1 31
3 32.5
11 32.5
QUINELLA
1,11 599.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 178.5
1,11 175
3,11 133
FORECAST
1,11 1,293
TIERCE
1,11,3 9,122
TRIO
1,3,11 1,699
FIRST 4
1,2,3,11 670
QUARTET
1,11,3,2 23,391
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
3/1 543.5
3/11 96.5
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 18