Sha Tin · 2021-12-18 · 13:31
Race 2
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-18 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. AUGUST MOON, ridden by C L Chau and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by 1, with TELECOM MISSILE second and GOLDEN MISSION third. The 4.2 favourite GOLDEN MISSION finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | AUGUST MOON BO 1.10.35 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · P O'Sullivan | C L Chau | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 5.1 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | TELECOM MISSILE B2/TT K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 12 | 8.4 | 1 |
| 3 | 11 | GOLDEN MISSION P M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 5 | 4.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 4 | SUNNY AND GOLD H-/TT J Moreira · C H Yip | J Moreira | C H Yip | 10 | 7.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | TAKINGUFURTHER V H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 8 | 18.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | SPEEDY DRAGON B/TT H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 6 | 11.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 12 | SUNNY SMILE TT H T Mo · D E Ferraris | H T Mo | D E Ferraris | 1 | 54.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 6 | ALLOY STAR B C Y Ho · T P Yung | C Y Ho | T P Yung | 7 | 12.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 10 | ALL THE WAY CP-/B2/H2/TT K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 4 | 42.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 3 | UNIVERSAL CROWN B K H Chan · D J Whyte | K H Chan | D J Whyte | 3 | 5.5 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 2 | AMAZEMENT B V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 9 | 17.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 9 | SCENIC SWEETIE TT M L Yeung · Y S Tsui | M L Yeung | Y S Tsui | 11 | 35.0 | 7-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | UNIVERSAL CROWN | 25.1% | 3.98 | 10 |
| 2 | 4 | SUNNY AND GOLD | 15.0% | 6.65 | 4 |
| 3 | 5 | AUGUST MOON | 12.7% | 7.87 | 1 |
| 4 | 11 | GOLDEN MISSION | 8.6% | 11.64 | 3 |
| 5 | 6 | ALLOY STAR | 8.2% | 12.24 | 8 |
| 6 | 7 | SPEEDY DRAGON | 6.8% | 14.71 | 6 |
| 7 | 2 | AMAZEMENT | 5.6% | 17.73 | 11 |
| 8 | 8 | TELECOM MISSILE | 5.2% | 19.29 | 2 |
| 9 | 9 | SCENIC SWEETIE | 4.5% | 22.30 | 12 |
| 10 | 12 | SUNNY SMILE | 3.9% | 25.77 | 7 |
| 11 | 1 | TAKINGUFURTHER | 3.3% | 30.59 | 5 |
| 12 | 10 | ALL THE WAY | 1.1% | 89.02 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 51.5
PLACE
5 19
8 24.5
11 17
QUINELLA
5,8 182.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 63
5,11 40
8,11 63.5
FORECAST
5,8 280
TIERCE
5,8,11 1,371
TRIO
5,8,11 256
FIRST 4
4,5,8,11 466
QUARTET
5,8,11,4 9,511
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
3/5 4,530.5
3/8 1,354.5
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 19.5