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Sha Tin · 2021-12-18 · 15:06

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-18 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY DAILY, ridden by K Teetan and trained by L Ho, won by N, with LEATHER VANGUARD second and RUNNING GLORY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.10
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 HAPPY DAILY Closed strongly CP/TT 1.22.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · L Ho 4 3.2 N
2 4 LEATHER VANGUARD Closed strongly M L Yeung · T P Yung 2 45.0 N
3 6 RUNNING GLORY Closed strongly J Moreira · J Size 8 3.2 1/2
4 7 VUKAN XB M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 7 6.2 3/4
5 2 GOOD BUDDY A Hamelin · D J Hall 12 11.0 3/4
6 14 YOUNG VICTORY TT A Badel · W Y So 11 9.7 2-1/4
7 3 FANTASTIC SHOW Closed strongly B H T Mo · Y S Tsui 9 26.0 3
8 5 LOYAL AMBITION Closed strongly H/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 1 131.0 3-3/4
9 8 ASIAN ONE L Ferraris · A T Millard 3 128.0 4-3/4
10 13 GOLDEN FOUR Closed strongly V Borges · C W Chang 6 23.0 4-3/4
11 9 THE MULTIPLIER Led early CP/TT C L Chau · D A Hayes 5 64.0 5
12 1 SPLENDID LIVING Closed strongly CP M F Poon · P F Yiu 10 26.0 6
13 12 FORTUNE MASTER B C Y Ho · K W Lui 14 18.0 8-1/4
14 11 ISLAND SURPRISE H K C Leung · K L Man 13 69.0 10-1/4
0 ENCHANTING START C L Chau · C S Shum

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HAPPY DAILY2. LEATHER VANGUARD+0.05L3. RUNNING GLORY+0.5L4. VUKAN+0.75L5. GOOD BUDDY+0.75L6. YOUNG VICTORY+2.25L7. FANTASTIC SHOW+3L8. LOYAL AMBITION+3.75L9. ASIAN ONE+4.75L10. GOLDEN FOUR+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick HAPPY DAILY (16.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 HAPPY DAILY 16.5% 6.08 1
2 2 GOOD BUDDY 16.1% 6.20 5
3 6 RUNNING GLORY 14.6% 6.87 3
4 14 YOUNG VICTORY 11.7% 8.52 6
5 7 VUKAN 10.9% 9.17 4
6 13 GOLDEN FOUR 7.9% 12.72 10
7 12 FORTUNE MASTER 7.0% 14.22 13
8 4 LEATHER VANGUARD 3.3% 30.01 2
9 9 THE MULTIPLIER 3.3% 30.64 11
10 1 SPLENDID LIVING 2.9% 34.89 12
11 3 FANTASTIC SHOW 2.4% 41.80 7
12 11 ISLAND SURPRISE 1.4% 71.68 14
13 8 ASIAN ONE 1.2% 82.67 9
14 5 LOYAL AMBITION 0.9% 116.12 8
HAPPY DAILY — wonGOOD BUDDYRUNNING GLORYYOUNG VICTORYVUKANGOLDEN FOURFORTUNE MASTERLEATHER VANGUARDTHE MULTIPLIERSPLENDID LIVINGFANTASTIC SHOWISLAND SURPRISEASIAN ONELOYAL AMBITION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 32

PLACE

4 101

6 14

10 14

QUINELLA

4,10 695

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 308.5

4,10 232

6,10 24

FORECAST

10,4 1,118

TIERCE

10,4,6 4,408

TRIO

4,6,10 738

FIRST 4

4,6,7,10 1,013

QUARTET

10,4,6,7 28,273

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 16

A2

4TH DOUBLE

5/4 741.5

5/10 264.5