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Sha Tin · 2021-12-18 · 17:13

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-18 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. ROMANTIC WARRIOR, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-3/4, with ARMOUR EAGLE second and TEAM SPIRIT third. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.00
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 ROMANTIC WARRIOR TT 1.09.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C S Shum 7 2.4 1-3/4
2 11 ARMOUR EAGLE TT1 A Badel · Y S Tsui 8 18.0 1-3/4
3 4 TEAM SPIRIT B/TT K H Chan · W Y So 1 22.0 2
4 10 WAR OF COURAGE B C L Chau · K L Man 11 34.0 2
5 12 HANDSOME TWELVE K Teetan · T P Yung 5 11.0 2-3/4
6 7 SEASONS BLISS B C Y Ho · K H Ting 4 4.2 4
7 2 FIVE ELEMENTS CP K C Leung · F C Lor 6 7.7 4
8 3 THE HULK H Bentley · C Fownes 2 34.0 4
8 8 ENNEA FORTUNE H/TT M Chadwick · C H Yip 12 15.0 4
10 5 MIGHTY VALOR CP- V Borges · P F Yiu 3 18.0 4-3/4
11 9 NOTHING IMPOSSIBLE R Maia · K W Lui 9 108.0 10-1/2
12 1 CALIFORNIA CONCORD B/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 10 16.0 13

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ROMANTIC WARRIOR2. ARMOUR EAGLE+1.75L3. TEAM SPIRIT+2L4. WAR OF COURAGE+2L5. HANDSOME TWELVE+2.75L6. SEASONS BLISS+4L7. FIVE ELEMENTS+4L8. THE HULK+4L8. ENNEA FORTUNE+4L10. MIGHTY VALOR+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick ROMANTIC WARRIOR (37.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 ROMANTIC WARRIOR 37.3% 2.68 1
2 7 SEASONS BLISS 17.9% 5.57 6
3 2 FIVE ELEMENTS 10.9% 9.19 7
4 8 ENNEA FORTUNE 7.9% 12.68 8
5 12 HANDSOME TWELVE 7.4% 13.43 5
6 1 CALIFORNIA CONCORD 5.1% 19.74 12
7 4 TEAM SPIRIT 3.8% 26.09 3
8 10 WAR OF COURAGE 3.7% 27.07 4
9 11 ARMOUR EAGLE 3.2% 31.58 2
10 5 MIGHTY VALOR 1.7% 59.49 10
11 3 THE HULK 0.8% 123.20 8
12 9 NOTHING IMPOSSIBLE 0.3% 352.27 11
ROMANTIC WARRIOR — wonSEASONS BLISSFIVE ELEMENTSENNEA FORTUNEHANDSOME TWELVECALIFORNIA CONCORDTEAM SPIRITWAR OF COURAGEARMOUR EAGLEMIGHTY VALORTHE HULKNOTHING IMPOSSIBLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 24.5

PLACE

4 50.5

6 14

11 46.5

QUINELLA

6,11 282.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 91

4,11 501

6,11 116

FORECAST

6,11 361

TIERCE

6,11,4 5,614

TRIO

4,6,11 1,723

FIRST 4

4,6,10,11 8,806

QUARTET

6,11,4,10 92,403

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 15.5

8TH DOUBLE

10/6 250

10/11 283.5