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Sha Tin · 2021-12-18 · 16:06

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course C+3 13 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-18 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. EZRA, ridden by R Maia and trained by A T Millard, won by N, with DARCI JOY second and LEADING FORTUNE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite DARCI JOY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.34.93
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 EZRA Closed strongly B 1.34.93 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · A T Millard 13 21.0 N
2 9 DARCI JOY Closed strongly B K C Leung · P F Yiu 1 3.2 N
3 11 LEADING FORTUNE Closed strongly B2 J Moreira · J Size 4 5.8 3/4
4 1 OSCAR GLORY Led early CP H Bentley · F C Lor 2 4.1 3/4
5 6 BIG BROOK Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 3 71.0 1-1/2
6 8 RIGHT AS RAIN Closed strongly B M Chadwick · C W Chang 12 16.0 1-1/2
7 4 NEW FUTURE Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 5 11.0 2
8 2 DECISIVE ACTION Closed strongly CP/TT A Badel · C S Shum 9 21.0 3-1/2
9 13 GO GO SIXTEEN V/TT K Teetan · K W Lui 8 16.0 4-1/2
10 5 GREAT TREASURE H N Wong · Y S Tsui 7 38.0 6
11 10 JIANGXI STAMINA B/TT C Y Ho · W Y So 6 12.0 6-1/2
12 14 KUNG FU TEA B- M F Poon · D J Hall 10 16.0 7-3/4
13 7 FASTER B/TT M L Yeung · D J Whyte 11 111.0 12-3/4
12 CHATER PINS A Hamelin · D A Hayes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. EZRA2. DARCI JOY+0.05L3. LEADING FORTUNE+0.75L4. OSCAR GLORY+0.75L5. BIG BROOK+1.5L6. RIGHT AS RAIN+1.5L7. NEW FUTURE+2L8. DECISIVE ACTION+3.5L9. GO GO SIXTEEN+4.5L10. GREAT TREASURE+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick DARCI JOY (21.2%) finished 2nd — the winner EZRA was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 DARCI JOY 21.2% 4.72 2
2 1 OSCAR GLORY 15.5% 6.47 4
3 11 LEADING FORTUNE 13.8% 7.27 3
4 2 DECISIVE ACTION 13.5% 7.41 8
5 10 JIANGXI STAMINA 8.5% 11.72 11
6 8 RIGHT AS RAIN 4.9% 20.58 6
7 14 KUNG FU TEA 4.5% 22.07 12
8 4 NEW FUTURE 4.0% 24.74 7
9 6 BIG BROOK 4.0% 24.81 5
10 3 EZRA 3.9% 25.46 1
11 13 GO GO SIXTEEN 3.6% 27.92 9
12 5 GREAT TREASURE 2.1% 47.51 10
13 7 FASTER 0.5% 202.36 13
DARCI JOYOSCAR GLORYLEADING FORTUNEDECISIVE ACTIONJIANGXI STAMINARIGHT AS RAINKUNG FU TEANEW FUTUREBIG BROOKEZRA — wonGO GO SIXTEENGREAT TREASUREFASTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 216

PLACE

3 52.5

9 14.5

11 20

QUINELLA

3,9 286.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,9 100.5

3,11 226

9,11 42

FORECAST

3,9 1,019

TIERCE

3,9,11 7,436

TRIO

3,9,11 674

FIRST 4

1,3,9,11 536

QUARTET

3,9,11,1 21,692

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,8/3,11>9,12 53,533

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 29

A1

6TH DOUBLE

3/3 3,199

3/9,12 98.5