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Sha Tin · 2021-12-18 · 14:36

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-18 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. FLYING DRAGON, ridden by K C Leung and trained by C H Yip, won by 3/4, with TRADER second and EVERYONE'S VICTORY third. The 3.0 favourite WHIZZ KID finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.08.75
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 FLYING DRAGON 1.08.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · C H Yip 5 8.9 3/4
2 1 TRADER TT C L Chau · D A Hayes 2 13.0 3/4
2 4 EVERYONE'S VICTORY H/TT H Bentley · F C Lor 10 4.0 3/4
4 3 WHIZZ KID B/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 12 3.0 2-1/4
5 12 TEAM GOODLUCK CP1/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 7 14.0 2-1/2
6 11 DESTIN B M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan 6 43.0 5-1/2
7 2 HAPPY TANGO B K Teetan · Y S Tsui 8 39.0 5-3/4
8 6 STEEL WIN C Y Ho · C W Chang 1 7.2 6
9 9 AQUILA XB M F Poon · A T Millard 9 20.0 9
10 10 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE B C Wong · P F Yiu 4 37.0 11
11 7 BINGO BINGO B/TT1 A Badel · C S Shum 11 9.8 13-1/4
12 8 HUNKY DORY B R Maia · R Gibson 3 74.0 14-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FLYING DRAGON2. TRADER+0.75L2. EVERYONE'S VICTORY+0.75L4. WHIZZ KID+2.25L5. TEAM GOODLUCK+2.5L6. DESTIN+5.5L7. HAPPY TANGO+5.75L8. STEEL WIN+6L9. AQUILA+9L10. WINWIN THIRTYTHREE+11L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick WHIZZ KID (23.9%) finished 4th — the winner FLYING DRAGON was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 WHIZZ KID 23.9% 4.19 4
2 5 FLYING DRAGON 19.7% 5.06 1
3 4 EVERYONE'S VICTORY 14.9% 6.73 2
4 6 STEEL WIN 11.9% 8.40 8
5 1 TRADER 11.4% 8.79 2
6 7 BINGO BINGO 4.5% 22.10 11
7 10 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 3.2% 31.60 10
8 2 HAPPY TANGO 3.0% 33.30 7
9 12 TEAM GOODLUCK 2.7% 36.64 5
10 9 AQUILA 2.0% 49.21 9
11 11 DESTIN 1.8% 55.55 6
12 8 HUNKY DORY 1.0% 99.26 12
WHIZZ KIDFLYING DRAGON — wonEVERYONE'S VICTORYSTEEL WINTRADERBINGO BINGOWINWIN THIRTYTHREEHAPPY TANGOTEAM GOODLUCKAQUILADESTINHUNKY DORY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 89

PLACE

1 33.5

4 16

5 30.5

QUINELLA

1,5 274

4,5 126

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 79

1,5 165

4,5 81

FORECAST

5,1 562

5,4 341

TIERCE

5,1,4 2,691

5,4,1 2,386

TRIO

1,4,5 701

FIRST 4

1,3,4,5 298

QUARTET

5,1,4,3 5,604

5,4,1,3 5,139

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

5,7,9/1,4,5 185,957

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 28.5

A3

3RD DOUBLE

7/1 59

7/4 20

7/5 664.5