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Happy Valley · 2021-12-22 · 18:46

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-12-22 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY JAI JAI, ridden by J Moreira and trained by T P Yung, won by HD, with CENTENARY IBIS second and WONDER WIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.39.45
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 HAPPY JAI JAI Closed strongly TT 1.39.45 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · T P Yung 7 2.9 HD
2 10 CENTENARY IBIS Led early B/XB/TT M F Poon · A T Millard 3 3.8 HD
3 4 WONDER WIN Closed strongly K C Leung · L Ho 6 13.0 1-1/4
4 1 DAILY BEAUTY Closed strongly B/TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 1 7.2 1-1/4
5 12 SMILING FACE Closed strongly SR/TT V Borges · D J Whyte 11 20.0 3-3/4
6 8 WONDERFUL TIGER Closed strongly H/XB/TT A Hamelin · W Y So 9 13.0 5-1/2
7 6 PRESIDENT STAR B/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 4 14.0 6-1/4
8 3 NITRO EXPRESS B/TT L Ferraris · D E Ferraris 8 12.0 7
9 11 VIRTUS STAR CP2/TT A Badel · K L Man 2 20.0 8
10 9 AEROSONIC P-/PC1/TT- H T Mo · C W Chang 10 92.0 8
11 5 SMART COUSIN K H Chan · C H Yip 5 17.0 8
12 2 WITTY SCHOLAR R Maia · D A Hayes 12 77.0 18

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HAPPY JAI JAI2. CENTENARY IBIS+0.2L3. WONDER WIN+1.25L4. DAILY BEAUTY+1.25L5. SMILING FACE+3.75L6. WONDERFUL TIGER+5.5L7. PRESIDENT STAR+6.25L8. NITRO EXPRESS+7L9. VIRTUS STAR+8L10. AEROSONIC+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick HAPPY JAI JAI (21.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 HAPPY JAI JAI 21.7% 4.61 1
2 10 CENTENARY IBIS 17.1% 5.84 2
3 6 PRESIDENT STAR 13.3% 7.50 7
4 1 DAILY BEAUTY 8.3% 12.00 4
5 5 SMART COUSIN 7.3% 13.67 11
6 4 WONDER WIN 6.8% 14.76 3
7 3 NITRO EXPRESS 6.3% 15.80 8
8 12 SMILING FACE 5.7% 17.41 5
9 11 VIRTUS STAR 5.3% 19.04 9
10 8 WONDERFUL TIGER 4.2% 23.58 6
11 9 AEROSONIC 2.7% 37.29 10
12 2 WITTY SCHOLAR 1.2% 85.20 12
HAPPY JAI JAI — wonCENTENARY IBISPRESIDENT STARDAILY BEAUTYSMART COUSINWONDER WINNITRO EXPRESSSMILING FACEVIRTUS STARWONDERFUL TIGERAEROSONICWITTY SCHOLAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 29.5

PLACE

4 50

7 13.5

10 14.5

QUINELLA

7,10 55.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 93

4,10 112

7,10 25.5

FORECAST

7,10 91

TIERCE

7,10,4 1,030

TRIO

4,7,10 272

FIRST 4

1,4,7,10 355

QUARTET

7,10,4,1 6,331

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 21

A3