Happy Valley · 2021-12-22 · 22:53
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2021-12-22 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. IGNITING, ridden by M F Poon and trained by K W Lui, won by 1/2, with STOICISM second and LOVING A BOOM third. Victory came as the 4.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | IGNITING TT2 1.09.37 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 2 | 4.4 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 9 | STOICISM A Badel · D E Ferraris | A Badel | D E Ferraris | 3 | 6.1 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | LOVING A BOOM TT C L Chau · R Gibson | C L Chau | R Gibson | 9 | 14.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 12 | SEIZING THE MOMENT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 6 | 5.1 | 1 |
| 5 | 8 | YO BEAUTY CP/H/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 4 | 5.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | COLONEL V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 7 | 8.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | CLASSIC POSH H T Mo · D J Hall | H T Mo | D J Hall | 12 | 90.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | GINSON TT L Ferraris · D A Hayes | L Ferraris | D A Hayes | 1 | 37.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | FLAMING PASSION TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 11 | 8.6 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 7 | WOOD ON FIRE H/V/TT A Hamelin · L Ho | A Hamelin | L Ho | 8 | 17.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 3 | ALL IN MIND CP/H/XB/TT K H Chan · W Y So | K H Chan | W Y So | 10 | 45.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 12 | 5 | EQUALETTA BLITZ B/TT1 B Shinn · D J Whyte | B Shinn | D J Whyte | 5 | 27.0 | 12 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | SEIZING THE MOMENT | 21.5% | 4.66 | 4 |
| 2 | 8 | YO BEAUTY | 18.6% | 5.36 | 5 |
| 3 | 10 | COLONEL | 9.8% | 10.17 | 6 |
| 4 | 9 | STOICISM | 9.2% | 10.87 | 2 |
| 5 | 7 | WOOD ON FIRE | 6.7% | 14.85 | 10 |
| 6 | 11 | FLAMING PASSION | 6.5% | 15.44 | 9 |
| 7 | 1 | IGNITING | 6.4% | 15.61 | 1 |
| 8 | 3 | ALL IN MIND | 5.7% | 17.66 | 11 |
| 9 | 2 | LOVING A BOOM | 5.6% | 17.92 | 3 |
| 10 | 6 | GINSON | 3.9% | 25.50 | 8 |
| 11 | 5 | EQUALETTA BLITZ | 3.1% | 32.25 | 12 |
| 12 | 4 | CLASSIC POSH | 3.0% | 33.60 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 44.5
PLACE
1 15.5
2 35.5
9 24
QUINELLA
1,9 127.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 82.5
1,9 55
2,9 114.5
FORECAST
1,9 215
TIERCE
1,9,2 1,681
TRIO
1,2,9 374
FIRST 4
1,2,9,12 340
QUARTET
1,9,2,12 7,400
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 21.5
A3 —
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,5,7/1,2,9 24,245
8TH DOUBLE
7/1 344.5
7/9 77
SIX UP
6,7,9/9,10/5,9/2,11/5,7/1,9 464
6,9/9/9/11/7/1 35,551
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
11/7/1 1,026
11/7/9 188