Happy Valley · 2021-12-22 · 19:47
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2021-12-22 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. MERIDIAN GENIUS, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by A T Millard, won by 1, with SO AWESOME second and SMART IDEA third. The 2.9 favourite SINGAPORE SPIRIT finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | MERIDIAN GENIUS 1.09.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · A T Millard | L Ferraris | A T Millard | 7 | 24.0 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | SO AWESOME B2/TT1 M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 9 | 9.2 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | SMART IDEA H/TT H Bentley · F C Lor | H Bentley | F C Lor | 10 | 12.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | SHOWINA B K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 12 | 22.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 10 | LORIZ CP- A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 1 | 4.4 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 11 | THETA HEDGE H/TT V Borges · K W Lui | V Borges | K W Lui | 3 | 13.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 5 | FORTUNE CARRIER B/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 4 | 6.2 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 4 | SINGAPORE SPIRIT B/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 8 | 2.9 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 7 | NORDIC WARRIOR B C L Chau · R Gibson | C L Chau | R Gibson | 11 | 49.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | G ONE EXCELLENT CP-/B1/TT M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 6 | 14.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | MOON PEAKS B/H H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 2 | 21.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 6 | E SPRINTER SR/XB C Wong · K H Ting | C Wong | K H Ting | 5 | 140.0 | 9-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | SINGAPORE SPIRIT | 20.0% | 5.00 | 8 |
| 2 | 5 | FORTUNE CARRIER | 18.6% | 5.37 | 7 |
| 3 | 3 | SMART IDEA | 12.0% | 8.37 | 3 |
| 4 | 8 | SO AWESOME | 9.2% | 10.82 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 | SHOWINA | 8.4% | 11.88 | 4 |
| 6 | 10 | LORIZ | 6.2% | 16.04 | 5 |
| 7 | 7 | NORDIC WARRIOR | 6.2% | 16.06 | 9 |
| 8 | 11 | THETA HEDGE | 5.6% | 17.86 | 6 |
| 9 | 2 | MERIDIAN GENIUS | 4.8% | 20.69 | 1 |
| 10 | 12 | MOON PEAKS | 4.2% | 23.88 | 11 |
| 11 | 9 | G ONE EXCELLENT | 3.9% | 25.92 | 10 |
| 12 | 6 | E SPRINTER | 0.8% | 121.31 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 247.5
PLACE
2 52
3 33
8 31
QUINELLA
2,8 1,163.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 346.5
2,8 308
3,8 165
FORECAST
2,8 3,367
TIERCE
2,8,3 31,972
TRIO
2,3,8 3,388
FIRST 4
1,2,3,8 10,346
QUARTET
2,8,3,1 260,035
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
3/2 791
3/8 196
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 29
A3 —