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Happy Valley · 2021-12-22 · 21:15

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2021-12-22 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY ARCHANGEL, ridden by H Bentley and trained by F C Lor, won by HD, with SAVVY DELIGHT second and INFINITY WIN third. The 3.5 favourite SAVVY DELIGHT finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.68
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 LUCKY ARCHANGEL CP/XB 1.09.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · F C Lor 1 3.9 HD
2 5 SAVVY DELIGHT TT J Moreira · J Size 5 3.5 HD
3 3 INFINITY WIN B/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes 4 9.1 2-1/4
4 12 THE JOLLY B/TT M L Yeung · D J Whyte 6 47.0 3-1/4
5 2 TURBO POWER C L Chau · K W Lui 9 11.0 3-1/2
6 10 HANDSOME REBEL B/TT- M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 11 83.0 4-1/4
7 8 AHEAD A HEAD B C Y Ho · T P Yung 3 14.0 4-1/2
8 1 HARRIER JET B V Borges · P O'Sullivan 12 53.0 5-1/2
9 11 MELBOURNE HALL H/XB M F Poon · D J Hall 2 4.0 5-1/2
10 7 WINNING GLORY TT1 H N Wong · K H Ting 7 164.0 6-3/4
11 6 HERO STAR TT K C Leung · K L Man 10 15.0 6-3/4
12 4 HAPPY PROFIT CP-/B1/TT A Badel · C S Shum 8 27.0 16-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LUCKY ARCHANGEL2. SAVVY DELIGHT+0.2L3. INFINITY WIN+2.25L4. THE JOLLY+3.25L5. TURBO POWER+3.5L6. HANDSOME REBEL+4.25L7. AHEAD A HEAD+4.5L8. HARRIER JET+5.5L9. MELBOURNE HALL+5.5L10. WINNING GLORY+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick MELBOURNE HALL (21.8%) finished 9th — the winner LUCKY ARCHANGEL was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 MELBOURNE HALL 21.8% 4.58 9
2 5 SAVVY DELIGHT 19.0% 5.25 2
3 3 INFINITY WIN 17.6% 5.70 3
4 9 LUCKY ARCHANGEL 8.1% 12.30 1
5 8 AHEAD A HEAD 8.1% 12.34 7
6 4 HAPPY PROFIT 7.0% 14.20 12
7 6 HERO STAR 5.4% 18.53 11
8 2 TURBO POWER 5.2% 19.35 5
9 12 THE JOLLY 3.7% 27.39 4
10 10 HANDSOME REBEL 1.9% 51.70 6
11 1 HARRIER JET 1.6% 62.28 8
12 7 WINNING GLORY 0.5% 189.43 10
MELBOURNE HALLSAVVY DELIGHTINFINITY WINLUCKY ARCHANGEL — wonAHEAD A HEADHAPPY PROFITHERO STARTURBO POWERTHE JOLLYHANDSOME REBELHARRIER JETWINNING GLORY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 39.5

PLACE

3 25.5

5 18.5

9 15

QUINELLA

5,9 102

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 66

3,9 63

5,9 37.5

FORECAST

9,5 228

TIERCE

9,5,3 1,442

TRIO

3,5,9 280

FIRST 4

3,5,9,12 1,493

QUARTET

9,5,3,12 25,825

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 18.5

A3

5TH DOUBLE

9/5 11.5

9/9 116.5