Happy Valley · 2021-12-22 · 20:16
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2021-12-22 was Class 3 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. ABOVE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A T Millard, won by 3/4, with EXCEPTIONAL NICE second and SAVVY KINGMAN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | ABOVE Closed strongly B/TT 2.15.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 1 | 3.1 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 7 | EXCEPTIONAL NICE E C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 4 | 6.6 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 3 | SAVVY KINGMAN Led early H Bentley · F C Lor | H Bentley | F C Lor | 3 | 7.9 | 2 |
| 4 | 5 | NORDIC SKY Closed strongly SR/XB K C Leung · A T Millard | K C Leung | A T Millard | 2 | 13.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 8 | GOD OF DRAGON Closed strongly B/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 7 | 9.8 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | KING TOURBILLON TT1 A Badel · Y S Tsui | A Badel | Y S Tsui | 5 | 51.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 4 | VINCY Closed strongly SR/TT B Shinn · C H Yip | B Shinn | C H Yip | 8 | 9.2 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 1 | XIANG BAI QI B L Ferraris · D E Ferraris | L Ferraris | D E Ferraris | 6 | 16.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | AWE TT M Chadwick · D A Hayes | M Chadwick | D A Hayes | 10 | 7.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | STIMULATION B/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 9 | 27.0 | 18-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | ROYAL PRIDE B/TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 11 | 15.0 | 23 |
| — | 9 | PERFECT TO GREAT V Borges · C Fownes | V Borges | C Fownes | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | ABOVE | 21.2% | 4.72 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | SAVVY KINGMAN | 20.9% | 4.78 | 3 |
| 3 | 7 | EXCEPTIONAL NICE | 18.3% | 5.45 | 2 |
| 4 | 8 | GOD OF DRAGON | 8.2% | 12.20 | 5 |
| 5 | 12 | AWE | 7.5% | 13.33 | 9 |
| 6 | 11 | STIMULATION | 6.6% | 15.21 | 10 |
| 7 | 10 | ROYAL PRIDE | 5.2% | 19.23 | 11 |
| 8 | 4 | VINCY | 4.7% | 21.25 | 7 |
| 9 | 1 | XIANG BAI QI | 3.9% | 25.89 | 8 |
| 10 | 5 | NORDIC SKY | 2.6% | 38.79 | 4 |
| 11 | 2 | KING TOURBILLON | 1.0% | 103.92 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 31
PLACE
3 19.5
6 15
7 23
QUINELLA
6,7 106.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,6 43
3,7 87
6,7 42.5
FORECAST
6,7 214
TIERCE
6,7,3 1,019
TRIO
3,6,7 285
FIRST 4
3,5,6,7 980
QUARTET
6,7,3,5 13,976
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 23
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
2/6,9 670
2/7 374