Happy Valley · 2021-12-22 · 22:19
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2021-12-22 was Class 2 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. WE THE SOUTH, ridden by C L Chau and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with KURPANY second and VOYAGE WARRIOR third. The 3.1 favourite KEEP YOU WARM finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | WE THE SOUTH H/XB 0.56.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · F C Lor | C L Chau | F C Lor | 4 | 5.4 | N |
| 2 | 5 | KURPANY B1/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 1 | 5.2 | N |
| 3 | 1 | VOYAGE WARRIOR C Wong · P F Yiu | C Wong | P F Yiu | 7 | 9.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 9 | KEEP YOU WARM B/XB A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 6 | 3.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | HONG KONG WIN V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 3 | 9.2 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 11 | HARMONY FIRE CP-/XB/TT1 M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 8 | 14.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 3 | HANDSOME BO BO TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 10 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | VALIANT DREAM H N Wong · K W Lui | H N Wong | K W Lui | 5 | 13.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 6 | SPARKLING DRAGON TT K C Leung · A T Millard | K C Leung | A T Millard | 2 | 19.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 2 | GRATEFUL HEART CP/TT K H Chan · C S Shum | K H Chan | C S Shum | 9 | 64.0 | 6-1/2 |
| — | 10 | DROPS OF GOD J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | KURPANY | 21.4% | 4.68 | 2 |
| 2 | 9 | KEEP YOU WARM | 21.2% | 4.71 | 4 |
| 3 | 7 | WE THE SOUTH | 15.3% | 6.55 | 1 |
| 4 | 11 | HARMONY FIRE | 8.7% | 11.48 | 6 |
| 5 | 4 | HONG KONG WIN | 8.1% | 12.34 | 5 |
| 6 | 3 | HANDSOME BO BO | 6.6% | 15.09 | 7 |
| 7 | 1 | VOYAGE WARRIOR | 6.5% | 15.30 | 3 |
| 8 | 2 | GRATEFUL HEART | 5.4% | 18.64 | 10 |
| 9 | 8 | VALIANT DREAM | 3.7% | 26.82 | 8 |
| 10 | 6 | SPARKLING DRAGON | 3.1% | 32.50 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 54.5
PLACE
1 33.5
5 16
7 21
QUINELLA
5,7 166
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 113.5
1,7 115
5,7 57
FORECAST
7,5 393
TIERCE
7,5,1 3,186
TRIO
1,5,7 568
FIRST 4
1,5,7,9 352
QUARTET
7,5,1,9 12,672
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 28
A3 —
A1 —
7TH DOUBLE
11/5 22
11/7 181