Happy Valley · 2022-01-26 · 18:46
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2022-01-26 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. STOLTZ, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by 2, with SPECIAL M second and LIKE THAT third. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | STOLTZ CP1 0.55.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 5 | 2.0 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | SPECIAL M B/TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 1 | 4.7 | 2 |
| 3 | 7 | LIKE THAT V K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 3 | 17.0 | 3 |
| 4 | 1 | NAMJONG SINGS B A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 6 | 19.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 5 | BRILLIANT FORTUNE H/TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 2 | 3.6 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 6 | HEART CONQUERED CP1 M Chadwick · R Gibson | M Chadwick | R Gibson | 4 | 11.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | WINE AND WINE B/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 7 | 48.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 8 | 4 | FLYING GENIUS B/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 8 | 49.0 | 9-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | BRILLIANT FORTUNE | 31.9% | 3.13 | 5 |
| 2 | 3 | STOLTZ | 24.6% | 4.06 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | SPECIAL M | 17.8% | 5.63 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | HEART CONQUERED | 8.1% | 12.42 | 6 |
| 5 | 7 | LIKE THAT | 7.6% | 13.11 | 3 |
| 6 | 1 | NAMJONG SINGS | 4.7% | 21.41 | 4 |
| 7 | 4 | FLYING GENIUS | 3.1% | 32.61 | 8 |
| 8 | 8 | WINE AND WINE | 2.3% | 44.37 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 20.5
PLACE
2 12.5
3 12
7 28.5
QUINELLA
2,3 42
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 18
2,7 70.5
3,7 41.5
FORECAST
3,2 81
TIERCE
3,2,7 367
TRIO
2,3,7 116
FIRST 4
1,2,3,7 222
QUARTET
3,2,7,1 2,310
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 13
A2 —