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Happy Valley · 2022-01-26 · 20:46

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C+3 10 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2022-01-26 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MORE THAN ENOUGH, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with BULLETPROOF second and NEARLY FINE third. The winner led throughout. The 2.4 favourite BULLETPROOF finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.39.43
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 MORE THAN ENOUGH Wire to wire B/TT 1.39.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A S Cruz 6 9.2 N
2 7 BULLETPROOF Closed strongly B Z Purton · P F Yiu 8 2.4 N
3 1 NEARLY FINE Closed strongly TT B Shinn · C Fownes 10 7.0 3/4
4 8 GO FOR TEA H Bentley · F C Lor 4 61.0 3/4
5 2 DR WINNING TT J Moreira · J Size 7 5.3 1-1/2
6 9 LAPUTA V/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 2 5.5 1-1/2
7 4 SUPER RED DRAGON B/TT V Borges · W Y So 5 28.0 1-1/2
8 5 VITRALITE XB/SR1 L Ferraris · P O'Sullivan 3 17.0 4
9 6 TOYCOON CP M F Poon · P F Yiu 9 22.0 6-1/2
10 10 PASSING FASHION XB/TT A Badel · C H Yip 1 37.0 13-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MORE THAN ENOUGH2. BULLETPROOF+0.05L3. NEARLY FINE+0.75L4. GO FOR TEA+0.75L5. DR WINNING+1.5L6. LAPUTA+1.5L7. SUPER RED DRAGON+1.5L8. VITRALITE+4L9. TOYCOON+6.5L10. PASSING FASHION+13.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick DR WINNING (23.9%) finished 5th — the winner MORE THAN ENOUGH was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 DR WINNING 23.9% 4.18 5
2 9 LAPUTA 23.7% 4.22 6
3 7 BULLETPROOF 16.9% 5.92 2
4 6 TOYCOON 9.2% 10.91 9
5 1 NEARLY FINE 7.0% 14.29 3
6 3 MORE THAN ENOUGH 6.2% 16.13 1
7 4 SUPER RED DRAGON 4.4% 22.51 7
8 8 GO FOR TEA 3.4% 29.68 4
9 5 VITRALITE 3.2% 31.05 8
10 10 PASSING FASHION 2.1% 48.27 10
DR WINNINGLAPUTABULLETPROOFTOYCOONNEARLY FINEMORE THAN ENOUGH — wonSUPER RED DRAGONGO FOR TEAVITRALITEPASSING FASHION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 92.5

PLACE

1 22.5

3 26.5

7 11.5

QUINELLA

3,7 137.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 91

1,7 39

3,7 53.5

FORECAST

3,7 363

TIERCE

3,7,1 1,957

TRIO

1,3,7 250

FIRST 4

1,3,7,8 2,549

QUARTET

3,7,1,8 53,170

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,9/1,3,7 17,538

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 22.5

A1

4TH DOUBLE

4/3 785

4/7 36