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Happy Valley · 2022-01-26 · 21:46

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2022-01-26 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CIRCUIT SEVEN, ridden by M F Poon and trained by A S Cruz, won by SH, with FORTE second and PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN third. The 2.6 favourite FORTE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.56.87
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 CIRCUIT SEVEN B/H/TT 0.56.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · A S Cruz 10 34.0 SH
2 3 FORTE XB/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 5 2.6 SH
3 8 PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN H/SR/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte 6 13.0 SH
4 2 MY ECSTATIC TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 7 10.0 1-1/2
5 10 STAR OF WUYI B K C Leung · Y S Tsui 11 24.0 2
6 6 GANG OF BROTHERS L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan 1 58.0 2-1/4
7 4 SCOTCH TYCOON H C Y Ho · K W Lui 2 5.9 2-1/2
8 1 FABULOUS EIGHT B/TT J Moreira · P F Yiu 3 3.9 2-3/4
9 12 TREASURE OF FIELD B/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting 8 38.0 3-1/2
10 5 TRUST ME B/H B Shinn · C H Yip 9 20.0 4
11 11 AQUILA B/XB V Borges · A T Millard 4 13.0 4-1/2
12 9 CALL ME LU XB-/TT L Ferraris · W Y So 12 237.0 7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CIRCUIT SEVEN2. FORTE+0.1L3. PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN+0.1L4. MY ECSTATIC+1.5L5. STAR OF WUYI+2L6. GANG OF BROTHERS+2.25L7. SCOTCH TYCOON+2.5L8. FABULOUS EIGHT+2.75L9. TREASURE OF FIELD+3.5L10. TRUST ME+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick FORTE (22.6%) finished 2nd — the winner CIRCUIT SEVEN was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 FORTE 22.6% 4.43 2
2 1 FABULOUS EIGHT 18.8% 5.33 8
3 4 SCOTCH TYCOON 15.3% 6.56 7
4 2 MY ECSTATIC 9.3% 10.80 4
5 8 PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN 7.0% 14.29 3
6 12 TREASURE OF FIELD 6.2% 16.12 9
7 11 AQUILA 5.3% 18.80 11
8 7 CIRCUIT SEVEN 4.9% 20.40 1
9 10 STAR OF WUYI 4.3% 23.11 5
10 5 TRUST ME 4.2% 23.64 10
11 6 GANG OF BROTHERS 1.3% 74.49 6
12 9 CALL ME LU 0.8% 120.58 12
FORTEFABULOUS EIGHTSCOTCH TYCOONMY ECSTATICPRETTY QUEEN PRAWNTREASURE OF FIELDAQUILACIRCUIT SEVEN — wonSTAR OF WUYITRUST MEGANG OF BROTHERSCALL ME LU

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 345.5

PLACE

3 13.5

7 80

8 36

QUINELLA

3,7 496

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 171.5

3,8 57.5

7,8 427.5

FORECAST

7,3 1,365

TIERCE

7,3,8 15,039

TRIO

3,7,8 1,326

FIRST 4

2,3,7,8 2,408

QUARTET

7,3,8,2 93,202

All pools (5 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,10,11/3,7,8 56,844

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 38

A1

6TH DOUBLE

10/3 27.5

10/7 1,407

TRIPLE TRIO

1,3,7/3,10,11/3,7,8 2,026,597

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,3,7/3,10,11/Any Combination 1,723