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Happy Valley · 2022-01-26 · 20:16

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C+3 10 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2022-01-26 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. V CHEVALIERS, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K L Man, won by N, with CHATER PINS second and VILLA FIONN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite AMAZING NEWS finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.40.14
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 V CHEVALIERS Closed strongly B/H/TT 1.40.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · K L Man 4 7.3 N
2 9 CHATER PINS Closed strongly SR A Hamelin · D A Hayes 5 7.7 N
3 1 VILLA FIONN B K Teetan · P F Yiu 7 9.6 1-1/4
4 6 COURAGEOUS KNIGHT B/TT H Bentley · C S Shum 2 24.0 1-1/2
5 2 SPEED FAY FAY B C L Chau · T P Yung 9 18.0 1-3/4
6 7 BIG TWO Led early H/SR/XB B Shinn · D J Whyte 6 7.7 1-3/4
7 8 ERNEST FEELING Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · R Gibson 8 10.0 2-1/4
8 5 AMAZING NEWS XB C Y Ho · C Fownes 1 3.8 2-1/4
9 3 MURRAY'S PARTNERS V J Moreira · C H Yip 10 15.0 3-1/2
10 10 MISTER ARM B1 V Borges · Y S Tsui 3 4.9 4-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. V CHEVALIERS2. CHATER PINS+0.05L3. VILLA FIONN+1.25L4. COURAGEOUS KNIGHT+1.5L5. SPEED FAY FAY+1.75L6. BIG TWO+1.75L7. ERNEST FEELING+2.25L8. AMAZING NEWS+2.25L9. MURRAY'S PARTNERS+3.5L10. MISTER ARM+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick MISTER ARM (21.5%) finished 10th — the winner V CHEVALIERS was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 MISTER ARM 21.5% 4.65 10
2 5 AMAZING NEWS 17.6% 5.69 8
3 4 V CHEVALIERS 10.5% 9.56 1
4 9 CHATER PINS 10.4% 9.63 2
5 3 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 9.4% 10.68 9
6 1 VILLA FIONN 9.2% 10.84 3
7 7 BIG TWO 8.2% 12.19 6
8 8 ERNEST FEELING 5.8% 17.29 7
9 2 SPEED FAY FAY 5.3% 18.80 5
10 6 COURAGEOUS KNIGHT 2.2% 46.11 4
MISTER ARMAMAZING NEWSV CHEVALIERS — wonCHATER PINSMURRAY'S PARTNERSVILLA FIONNBIG TWOERNEST FEELINGSPEED FAY FAYCOURAGEOUS KNIGHT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 73.5

PLACE

1 26

4 25

9 22.5

QUINELLA

4,9 262.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 85

1,9 111

4,9 82

FORECAST

4,9 549

TIERCE

4,9,1 2,809

TRIO

1,4,9 531

FIRST 4

1,4,6,9 3,332

QUARTET

4,9,1,6 56,707

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 30

A1

A3

3RD DOUBLE

8/4 276

8/9 54