Happy Valley · 2022-02-09 · 18:46

Race 1

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course B 7 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2022-02-09 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. STOLTZ, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/4, with SPECIAL M second and LIKE THAT third. Victory came as the 1.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.56.92

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	STOLTZ CP 0.56.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui	Z Purton	K W Lui	4	133 lb	1.2	1-1/4
2	2	SPECIAL M B/TT A Badel · J Size	A Badel	J Size	1	128 lb	6.5	1-1/4
3	7	LIKE THAT V K Teetan · F C Lor	K Teetan	F C Lor	7	116 lb	9.2	2-1/4
4	4	LYRICAL MOTION H W Lai · W Y So	H W Lai	W Y So	2	119 lb	47.0	2-1/2
5	5	BIG HAPPINESS K C Leung · K H Ting	K C Leung	K H Ting	6	118 lb	14.0	5-1/2
6	3	NORTHERN DRAGON H L Ferraris · D J Hall	L Ferraris	D J Hall	5	120 lb	34.0	6-3/4
7	8	TURIN WARRIOR B/XB D Moor · R Gibson	D Moor	R Gibson	3	115 lb	63.0	7-1/4
—	6	HEART CONQUERED L Hewitson · R Gibson	L Hewitson	R Gibson	—	117 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick STOLTZ (54.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	STOLTZ	54.1%	1.85	1	1.2
2	2	SPECIAL M	25.5%	3.92	2	6.5
3	7	LIKE THAT	9.2%	10.89	3	9.2
4	5	BIG HAPPINESS	3.3%	30.47	5	14.0
5	3	NORTHERN DRAGON	3.1%	32.42	6	34.0
6	8	TURIN WARRIOR	2.8%	35.32	7	63.0
7	4	LYRICAL MOTION	1.9%	51.77	4	47.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 12.5

PLACE

1 10.1

2 12

7 15

QUINELLA

1,2 19.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 12

1,7 14

2,7 19.5

FORECAST

1,2 24

TIERCE

1,2,7 39

TRIO

1,2,7 19

FIRST 4

1,2,4,7 81

QUARTET

1,2,7,4 310

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 12.5

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Happy Valley 1000m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99