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Happy Valley · 2022-02-09 · 19:46

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-02-09 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. DRAGON PRIDE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by T P Yung, won by N, with DIAMOND STAR second and AMAZING BOY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.40.94
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 DRAGON PRIDE Closed strongly 1.40.94 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · T P Yung 1 1.8 N
2 11 DIAMOND STAR Closed strongly E/TT K Teetan · J Size 11 12.0 N
3 5 AMAZING BOY Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · C W Chang 8 16.0 1/2
4 1 LUCKY MISSILE Closed strongly CP L Ferraris · D J Hall 7 8.4 3/4
5 3 WAH MAY LUCK B/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 5 28.0 1-1/2
6 9 PRIME STAR Closed strongly B/TT R Maia · A T Millard 2 10.0 2-1/2
7 12 SHANGHAI GRACE B A Badel · Y S Tsui 3 6.5 2-3/4
8 8 PRESIDENT STAR B/TT D Moor · C S Shum 10 54.0 6-3/4
9 10 NOBLE MAN B/TT H Bentley · K L Man 12 23.0 7-3/4
10 2 EVER JOY Led early BO/XB2 L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan 6 79.0 8-1/2
11 4 SMART COUSIN K C Leung · C H Yip 4 34.0 11-3/4
12 6 LUCKY VICTOR B/TT K H Chan · K H Ting 9 55.0 18-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DRAGON PRIDE2. DIAMOND STAR+0.05L3. AMAZING BOY+0.5L4. LUCKY MISSILE+0.75L5. WAH MAY LUCK+1.5L6. PRIME STAR+2.5L7. SHANGHAI GRACE+2.75L8. PRESIDENT STAR+6.75L9. NOBLE MAN+7.75L10. EVER JOY+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick DRAGON PRIDE (25.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 DRAGON PRIDE 25.4% 3.94 1
2 12 SHANGHAI GRACE 11.3% 8.84 7
3 11 DIAMOND STAR 10.4% 9.63 2
4 9 PRIME STAR 10.4% 9.64 6
5 10 NOBLE MAN 7.4% 13.51 9
6 3 WAH MAY LUCK 7.1% 14.01 5
7 6 LUCKY VICTOR 7.0% 14.22 12
8 5 AMAZING BOY 6.8% 14.61 3
9 1 LUCKY MISSILE 4.7% 21.37 4
10 8 PRESIDENT STAR 4.5% 22.39 8
11 2 EVER JOY 2.9% 34.28 10
12 4 SMART COUSIN 2.1% 47.77 11
DRAGON PRIDE — wonSHANGHAI GRACEDIAMOND STARPRIME STARNOBLE MANWAH MAY LUCKLUCKY VICTORAMAZING BOYLUCKY MISSILEPRESIDENT STAREVER JOYSMART COUSIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 18

PLACE

5 31

7 11

11 29

QUINELLA

7,11 116.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 58

5,11 224.5

7,11 46.5

FORECAST

7,11 164

TIERCE

7,11,5 1,260

TRIO

5,7,11 587

FIRST 4

1,5,7,11 411

QUARTET

7,11,5,1 5,351

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

10/7 658.5

10/11 622.5

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 17

A2