Happy Valley · 2022-02-09 · 22:18
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2022-02-09 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. REGENCY STAR, ridden by A Badel and trained by C S Shum, won by 1, with PERFECT PEACH second and JOYFUL MOOD third. The 3.1 favourite JOYFUL MOOD finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | REGENCY STAR CP1 1.10.57 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 4 | 7.0 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | PERFECT PEACH B/H/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz | C L Chau | A S Cruz | 2 | 21.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 6 | JOYFUL MOOD Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 1 | 3.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 12 | MASTER ALBERT B/E/TT H W Lai · W Y So | H W Lai | W Y So | 5 | 99.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 11 | KING'S TROOPER TT R Maia · P F Yiu | R Maia | P F Yiu | 11 | 14.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | JAZZ STEED TT K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 6 | 20.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | HAPPILY FRIENDS V A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 3 | 6.6 | 2 |
| 8 | 10 | DASSIT M L Yeung · J Size | M L Yeung | J Size | 9 | 96.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 2 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL CP/XB H Bentley · F C Lor | H Bentley | F C Lor | 12 | 9.2 | 2-3/4 |
| 10 | 4 | NOBLE BOYZ SR/TT D Moor · D J Whyte | D Moor | D J Whyte | 8 | 59.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 1 | FLYING DRAGON K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 7 | 3.7 | 4 |
| 12 | 9 | NICHOLSON RETURNS B L Hewitson · D J Hall | L Hewitson | D J Hall | 10 | 48.0 | 5-1/4 |
| — | 0 | VENTO D Moor · D A Hayes | D Moor | D A Hayes | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | FLYING DRAGON | 16.5% | 6.05 | 11 |
| 2 | 6 | JOYFUL MOOD | 16.4% | 6.12 | 3 |
| 3 | 2 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL | 15.6% | 6.39 | 9 |
| 4 | 8 | REGENCY STAR | 14.0% | 7.17 | 1 |
| 5 | 5 | HAPPILY FRIENDS | 10.7% | 9.36 | 7 |
| 6 | 3 | JAZZ STEED | 7.2% | 13.93 | 6 |
| 7 | 7 | PERFECT PEACH | 6.4% | 15.72 | 2 |
| 8 | 11 | KING'S TROOPER | 5.4% | 18.37 | 5 |
| 9 | 4 | NOBLE BOYZ | 2.4% | 42.06 | 10 |
| 10 | 10 | DASSIT | 2.2% | 45.25 | 8 |
| 11 | 9 | NICHOLSON RETURNS | 1.8% | 54.65 | 12 |
| 12 | 12 | MASTER ALBERT | 1.4% | 69.49 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 70
PLACE
6 13.5
7 58.5
8 22.5
QUINELLA
7,8 854.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,7 126
6,8 40.5
7,8 232
FORECAST
8,7 1,315
TIERCE
8,7,6 5,419
TRIO
6,7,8 750
FIRST 4
6,7,8,12 6,390
QUARTET
8,7,6,12 171,735
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 21.5
A1 —
A3 —
7TH DOUBLE
6/7 187
6/8 525.5