Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2022-02-09 · 22:18

Race 8

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2022-02-09 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. REGENCY STAR, ridden by A Badel and trained by C S Shum, won by 1, with PERFECT PEACH second and JOYFUL MOOD third. The 3.1 favourite JOYFUL MOOD finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.10.57
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 REGENCY STAR CP1 1.10.57 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C S Shum 4 7.0 1
2 7 PERFECT PEACH B/H/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 2 21.0 1
3 6 JOYFUL MOOD Z Purton · K L Man 1 3.1 1-1/2
4 12 MASTER ALBERT B/E/TT H W Lai · W Y So 5 99.0 1-1/2
5 11 KING'S TROOPER TT R Maia · P F Yiu 11 14.0 1-3/4
6 3 JAZZ STEED TT K Teetan · C Fownes 6 20.0 1-3/4
7 5 HAPPILY FRIENDS V A Hamelin · K H Ting 3 6.6 2
8 10 DASSIT M L Yeung · J Size 9 96.0 2-3/4
9 2 LUCKY ARCHANGEL CP/XB H Bentley · F C Lor 12 9.2 2-3/4
10 4 NOBLE BOYZ SR/TT D Moor · D J Whyte 8 59.0 3-3/4
11 1 FLYING DRAGON K C Leung · C H Yip 7 3.7 4
12 9 NICHOLSON RETURNS B L Hewitson · D J Hall 10 48.0 5-1/4
0 VENTO D Moor · D A Hayes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. REGENCY STAR2. PERFECT PEACH+1L3. JOYFUL MOOD+1.5L4. MASTER ALBERT+1.5L5. KING'S TROOPER+1.75L6. JAZZ STEED+1.75L7. HAPPILY FRIENDS+2L8. DASSIT+2.75L9. LUCKY ARCHANGEL+2.75L10. NOBLE BOYZ+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick FLYING DRAGON (16.5%) finished 11th — the winner REGENCY STAR was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 FLYING DRAGON 16.5% 6.05 11
2 6 JOYFUL MOOD 16.4% 6.12 3
3 2 LUCKY ARCHANGEL 15.6% 6.39 9
4 8 REGENCY STAR 14.0% 7.17 1
5 5 HAPPILY FRIENDS 10.7% 9.36 7
6 3 JAZZ STEED 7.2% 13.93 6
7 7 PERFECT PEACH 6.4% 15.72 2
8 11 KING'S TROOPER 5.4% 18.37 5
9 4 NOBLE BOYZ 2.4% 42.06 10
10 10 DASSIT 2.2% 45.25 8
11 9 NICHOLSON RETURNS 1.8% 54.65 12
12 12 MASTER ALBERT 1.4% 69.49 4
FLYING DRAGONJOYFUL MOODLUCKY ARCHANGELREGENCY STAR — wonHAPPILY FRIENDSJAZZ STEEDPERFECT PEACHKING'S TROOPERNOBLE BOYZDASSITNICHOLSON RETURNSMASTER ALBERT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 70

PLACE

6 13.5

7 58.5

8 22.5

QUINELLA

7,8 854.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 126

6,8 40.5

7,8 232

FORECAST

8,7 1,315

TIERCE

8,7,6 5,419

TRIO

6,7,8 750

FIRST 4

6,7,8,12 6,390

QUARTET

8,7,6,12 171,735

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 21.5

A1

A3

7TH DOUBLE

6/7 187

6/8 525.5