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Happy Valley · 2022-02-09 · 20:16

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course B 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2022-02-09 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. OFF THE REEL, ridden by K C Leung and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/2, with LUCKY DIAMOND second and ASIAN ONE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite RED IMPACT finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.50.71
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 OFF THE REEL Closed strongly XB 1.50.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · P F Yiu 12 9.4 1-1/2
2 2 LUCKY DIAMOND B/TT1 K Teetan · K H Ting 10 6.3 1-1/2
3 9 ASIAN ONE Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · A T Millard 4 24.0 2-3/4
4 11 MANNA FROM HEAVEN B H W Lai · K L Man 5 31.0 3-1/2
5 7 HYPERION TREE Closed strongly C L Chau · T P Yung 2 6.2 5-1/4
6 3 RED IMPACT Z Purton · D A Hayes 7 3.1 5-3/4
7 5 WINNING VOLATILITY PC A Badel · K W Lui 1 7.3 6
8 12 TAILOR MADE Closed strongly TT H Bentley · C Fownes 6 10.0 6-1/2
9 4 SMART PATCH Closed strongly B A Hamelin · P O'Sullivan 11 47.0 6-3/4
10 10 FULL POWER Led early B/XB R Maia · R Gibson 3 38.0 7-3/4
11 1 MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly V C Wong · C H Yip 9 32.0 7-3/4
12 8 SWOT TROOPERS WIND B L Ferraris · D J Hall 8 12.0 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. OFF THE REEL—2. LUCKY DIAMOND+1.5L3. ASIAN ONE+2.75L4. MANNA FROM HEAVEN+3.5L5. HYPERION TREE+5.25L6. RED IMPACT+5.75L7. WINNING VOLATILITY+6L8. TAILOR MADE+6.5L9. SMART PATCH+6.75L10. FULL POWER+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick RED IMPACT (20.3%) finished 6th — the winner OFF THE REEL was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 RED IMPACT 20.3% 4.93 6
2 6 OFF THE REEL 12.9% 7.77 1
3 5 WINNING VOLATILITY 12.2% 8.17 7
4 2 LUCKY DIAMOND 11.5% 8.73 2
5 12 TAILOR MADE 10.8% 9.26 8
6 7 HYPERION TREE 10.3% 9.74 5
7 11 MANNA FROM HEAVEN 6.0% 16.55 4
8 1 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 4.6% 21.61 11
9 8 SWOT TROOPERS WIND 4.5% 22.47 12
10 4 SMART PATCH 3.6% 27.51 9
11 9 ASIAN ONE 1.8% 54.30 3
12 10 FULL POWER 1.5% 66.94 10
RED IMPACTOFF THE REEL — wonWINNING VOLATILITYLUCKY DIAMONDTAILOR MADEHYPERION TREEMANNA FROM HEAVENMURRAY'S PARTNERSSWOT TROOPERS WINDSMART PATCHASIAN ONEFULL POWER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 94.5

PLACE

2 19

6 31.5

9 64

QUINELLA

2,6 275.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 94.5

2,9 218

6,9 288

FORECAST

6,2 785

TIERCE

6,2,9 13,379

TRIO

2,6,9 1,968

FIRST 4

2,6,9,11 11,646

QUARTET

6,2,9,11 213,372

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 23.5

A3 —

A1 —

3RD DOUBLE

7/2 19.5

7/6 162

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