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Happy Valley · 2022-02-09 · 19:16

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 2200m Course B 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2022-02-09 was Class 5 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. FORTUNE PATROL, ridden by R Maia and trained by A T Millard, won by 1-1/2, with GO BALLISTIC second and WEALTHY EMPLOYEE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite JOLLY FOREVER finished 10th.

Result

Official · 2.18.86
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 FORTUNE PATROL Closed strongly B/H/XB 2.18.86 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · A T Millard 6 16.0 1-1/2
2 1 GO BALLISTIC Closed strongly SR/TT L Ferraris · R Gibson 3 10.0 1-1/2
3 12 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE B M L Yeung · K H Ting 2 22.0 1-3/4
4 11 SMILING FACE Closed strongly SR/TT A Badel · D J Whyte 10 10.0 2-3/4
5 2 WONDER WIN Closed strongly K C Leung · L Ho 12 7.3 3
6 4 CROWN AVENUE B- C Wong · C H Yip 4 41.0 3-3/4
7 8 GRAND POWER Led early A Hamelin · C W Chang 8 13.0 6-1/4
8 6 LEGEND GOES Closed strongly B L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan 9 42.0 6-1/4
9 7 FORTUNE TRIPLE D Moor · Y S Tsui 1 5.3 6-1/2
10 5 JOLLY FOREVER XB/TT K Teetan · W Y So 7 3.9 6-3/4
11 9 ANONYMA SR-/XB1/TT2 K H Chan · A T Millard 5 6.0 7
12 3 SKY GEM P H Bentley · C Fownes 11 16.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FORTUNE PATROL2. GO BALLISTIC+1.5L3. WEALTHY EMPLOYEE+1.75L4. SMILING FACE+2.75L5. WONDER WIN+3L6. CROWN AVENUE+3.75L7. GRAND POWER+6.25L8. LEGEND GOES+6.25L9. FORTUNE TRIPLE+6.5L10. JOLLY FOREVER+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick JOLLY FOREVER (18.2%) finished 10th — the winner FORTUNE PATROL was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 JOLLY FOREVER 18.2% 5.51 10
2 4 CROWN AVENUE 12.6% 7.94 6
3 1 GO BALLISTIC 12.0% 8.31 2
4 7 FORTUNE TRIPLE 11.4% 8.76 9
5 2 WONDER WIN 9.5% 10.51 5
6 3 SKY GEM 7.4% 13.57 12
7 11 SMILING FACE 6.3% 15.93 4
8 8 GRAND POWER 5.8% 17.26 7
9 9 ANONYMA 5.2% 19.28 11
10 12 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE 4.8% 20.85 3
11 6 LEGEND GOES 3.9% 25.71 8
12 10 FORTUNE PATROL 3.0% 33.77 1
JOLLY FOREVERCROWN AVENUEGO BALLISTICFORTUNE TRIPLEWONDER WINSKY GEMSMILING FACEGRAND POWERANONYMAWEALTHY EMPLOYEELEGEND GOESFORTUNE PATROL — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 167

PLACE

1 25

10 51.5

12 73

QUINELLA

1,10 1,321

QUINELLA PLACE

1,10 335.5

1,12 428

10,12 534

FORECAST

10,1 3,259

TIERCE

10,1,12 55,885

TRIO

1,10,12 7,558

FIRST 4

1,10,11,12 14,596

QUARTET

10,1,12,11 481,871

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1/1 17.5

1/10 386

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 17

A1