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Happy Valley · 2022-02-09 · 19:16

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 2200m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 2.18.86
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 FORTUNE PATROL Closed strongly B/H/XB 2.18.86 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · A T Millard 6 16.0 1-1/2
2 0 GO BALLISTIC Closed strongly SR/TT L Ferraris · R Gibson 3 10.0 1-1/2
3 0 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE B M L Yeung · K H Ting 2 22.0 1-3/4
4 0 SMILING FACE Closed strongly SR/TT A Badel · D J Whyte 10 10.0 2-3/4
5 0 WONDER WIN Closed strongly K C Leung · L Ho 12 7.3 3
6 0 CROWN AVENUE B- C Wong · C H Yip 4 41.0 3-3/4
7 0 GRAND POWER Led early A Hamelin · C W Chang 8 13.0 6-1/4
8 0 LEGEND GOES Closed strongly B L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan 9 42.0 6-1/4
9 0 FORTUNE TRIPLE D Moor · Y S Tsui 1 5.3 6-1/2
10 0 JOLLY FOREVER XB/TT K Teetan · W Y So 7 3.9 6-3/4
11 0 ANONYMA SR-/XB1/TT2 K H Chan · A T Millard 5 6.0 7
12 0 SKY GEM P H Bentley · C Fownes 11 16.0 8-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2022-02-09 was Class 5 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. FORTUNE PATROL, ridden by R Maia and trained by A T Millard, won by 1-1/2, with GO BALLISTIC second and WEALTHY EMPLOYEE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite JOLLY FOREVER finished 10th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FORTUNE PATROL—2. GO BALLISTIC+1.5L3. WEALTHY EMPLOYEE+1.75L4. SMILING FACE+2.75L5. WONDER WIN+3L6. CROWN AVENUE+3.75L7. GRAND POWER+6.25L8. LEGEND GOES+6.25L9. FORTUNE TRIPLE+6.5L10. JOLLY FOREVER+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick JOLLY FOREVER (18.2%) finished 10th — the winner FORTUNE PATROL was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 JOLLY FOREVER 18.2% 5.51 10
2 0 CROWN AVENUE 12.6% 7.94 6
3 0 GO BALLISTIC 12.0% 8.31 2
4 0 FORTUNE TRIPLE 11.4% 8.76 9
5 0 WONDER WIN 9.5% 10.51 5
6 0 SKY GEM 7.4% 13.57 12
7 0 SMILING FACE 6.3% 15.93 4
8 0 GRAND POWER 5.8% 17.26 7
9 0 ANONYMA 5.2% 19.28 11
10 0 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE 4.8% 20.85 3
11 0 LEGEND GOES 3.9% 25.71 8
12 0 FORTUNE PATROL 3.0% 33.77 1
JOLLY FOREVERCROWN AVENUEGO BALLISTICFORTUNE TRIPLEWONDER WINSKY GEMSMILING FACEGRAND POWERANONYMAWEALTHY EMPLOYEELEGEND GOESFORTUNE PATROL — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 167

PLACE

1 25

10 51.5

12 73

QUINELLA

1,10 1,321

QUINELLA PLACE

1,10 335.5

1,12 428

10,12 534

FORECAST

10,1 3,259

TIERCE

10,1,12 55,885

TRIO

1,10,12 7,558

FIRST 4

1,10,11,12 14,596

QUARTET

10,1,12,11 481,871

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1/1 17.5

1/10 386

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 17

A2 —