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Happy Valley · 2022-02-16 · 18:46

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1000m Course C 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2022-02-16 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. MULTIMORE, ridden by H T Mo and trained by T P Yung, won by NOSE, with VIVA MAMA second and RAGING BLAZE third. The 3.9 favourite RAGING BLAZE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 0.57.39
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 MULTIMORE B-/TT 0.57.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H T Mo · T P Yung 8 32.0 NOSE
2 9 VIVA MAMA CP/TT2 M Chadwick · R Gibson 9 4.7 NOSE
3 12 RAGING BLAZE TT Z Purton · J Size 6 3.9 3/4
4 7 E HONEY L Hewitson · C Fownes 12 14.0 3/4
5 1 UNIVERSAL CROWN B K H Chan · D J Whyte 3 5.4 1
6 4 SPLIT OF A SECOND H-/CP A Hamelin · W Y So 4 32.0 1-1/4
7 6 VIVA CHEF B K Teetan · L Ho 7 6.6 1-1/2
8 11 ISLAND SUNSHINE PC/TT1 D Moor · K W Lui 11 44.0 2-1/2
9 3 RED BRICK GLORY XB C Wong · P F Yiu 5 20.0 2-1/2
10 8 SCHOLAR V-/XB-/B1/TT L Ferraris · A T Millard 10 21.0 2-1/2
11 5 SURE WINNER B H Bentley · K L Man 1 17.0 3-1/2
12 10 GARLIC HERO E/TT K C Leung · C H Yip 2 9.6 4-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MULTIMORE2. VIVA MAMA+0.05L3. RAGING BLAZE+0.75L4. E HONEY+0.75L5. UNIVERSAL CROWN+1L6. SPLIT OF A SECOND+1.25L7. VIVA CHEF+1.5L8. ISLAND SUNSHINE+2.5L9. RED BRICK GLORY+2.5L10. SCHOLAR+2.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick RAGING BLAZE (23.6%) finished 3rd — the winner MULTIMORE was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 RAGING BLAZE 23.6% 4.24 3
2 1 UNIVERSAL CROWN 23.6% 4.24 5
3 6 VIVA CHEF 9.6% 10.44 7
4 7 E HONEY 8.9% 11.30 4
5 10 GARLIC HERO 8.7% 11.50 12
6 3 RED BRICK GLORY 6.1% 16.26 9
7 9 VIVA MAMA 5.4% 18.48 2
8 4 SPLIT OF A SECOND 4.5% 22.43 6
9 11 ISLAND SUNSHINE 3.7% 26.94 8
10 5 SURE WINNER 3.1% 32.12 11
11 8 SCHOLAR 1.5% 66.54 10
12 2 MULTIMORE 1.3% 74.31 1
RAGING BLAZEUNIVERSAL CROWNVIVA CHEFE HONEYGARLIC HERORED BRICK GLORYVIVA MAMASPLIT OF A SECONDISLAND SUNSHINESURE WINNERSCHOLARMULTIMORE — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 326.5

PLACE

2 88.5

9 18

12 15.5

QUINELLA

2,9 1,010

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 333.5

2,12 269.5

9,12 45.5

FORECAST

2,9 2,459

TIERCE

2,9,12 12,261

TRIO

2,9,12 1,669

FIRST 4

2,7,9,12 4,020

QUARTET

2,9,12,7 151,590

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 33

A2

A1